2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks for the 2017 Nedbank Golf Challenge

THE COURSE

Gary Player Country Club – The Gary Player Country Club, in Sun City, South Africa, will be playing as  a 7,831-yard par-72. this week. The fairways and rough consist of kikuyu and the greens are bent grass usually running around an 11 on the stimpmeter. It is a parkland course built in an extinct volcano crater that can be set up to play extremely long, but the altitude will make the yardage play about 10% shorter.

Given that this event has been played here (in some variation or another) for over 35 years, there’s a ton of course history to look at. Driving Accuracy, and Driving Distance, will be players’ stats that we will be looking at closely this week. Other numbers to consider are GIR Percentage and Par-5 Scoring.

 

PAST WINNERS

2016  – 14  Alexander Noren    (Runners Up:  – 8   Wang Jeung-hun)

2015  – 19  Marc Leishman   (Runner Up:  – 13   Henrik Stenson)

2014  – 18  Danny Willet   (Runner Up:  – 14  Ross Fisher)

2013  – 20  Thomas Bjorn   (Runner Up:  – 18  Jamie Donaldson, Sergio Garcia)

ODDS    (Bovada 11/06/2017)

Tyrrell Hatton  +1400

Branden Grace  +1600

Francesco Molinari  +1800

Louis Oosthuizen  +1600

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +1800

Ross Fisher  +1800

Tommy Fleetwood +2000

Alexander Noren  +2200

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +2200

Shane Lowry  +2200

Charl Schwartzel  +2500

Eddie Pepperell  +2500

Joost Luiten  +2800

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +2500

Peter Uihlein  +2800

Thorbjorn Olesen  +2800

Bernd Wiesberger  +3000

George Coetzee  +3300

Ian Poulter  +3500

Lee Westwood  +4000

Chris Wood  +4000

 

WHO’S HOT

Tyrrell Hatton  +1100

Justin Rose  +750

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +3500

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +1600

Paul Dunne  +5000

Eddie Pepperell  +4000

Joost Luiten  +2800

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Alexander Noren

Victor Dubuisson

Branden Grace

Andy Sullivan

Joost Luiten

Louis Oosthuizen

 

LONGER SHOTS

Nicolas Colsaerts  +4000

Dylan Frittelli  +5000

Paul Dunne  +5000

Haydn Porteous  +8000

Jordan Smith  +8000

Matthew Southgate  +8000

Scott Hend  +12500

Gregory Bourdy  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Martin Kaymer  +5000

Padraig Harrington  +6600

Richard Ramsay +8000

 

WHO WE LIKE

Ross Fisher.   Fisher has been playing too well to not have a win this year. He posted back-to-back second-place finishes at the Alfred Dunhill and Italian Open (in rather spectacular fashion to boot). His tee to green game over the past two months has been solid. He is 28 under par on par 5s this year, which ticks our Par-5 Scoring box in a big way. There are other names near the top that look good, but we are all over Ross Fisher this week.

Nicolas Colsaerts & Dylan Fritelli.  Colsaerts was poised to win last week in Turkey and the seemingly unstoppable Justin Rose just overpowered him. The long-hitting Belgian has really great form of late, playing his last five events a combined 54 under (where’s my agape face emoji???). Fritelli is more of a wild pick at this spot. However, he got super hot last week and we like taking the hot hand. Him being a South African doesn’t hurt (Oosthuizen and Grace both finish well here consistently, too).  Other names we like in the mid-tier are Paul Dunne and Chris Wood.

Jordan Smith. This pick in the high-odds tier is definitely out of the box and we are willing to accept whatever ridicule comes our way as a result. However, Smith is the real deal and is going to start showing up high on leaderboards before too long. We want to be on him when he does.