2018 Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship

THE OVERVIEW

Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – The Abu Dhabi Golf Club is a long, flat course with a significant amount of bunkering. Said bunkers are strategically placed around key landing areas for the bombers off the tee, so driving accuracy is worth keeping an eye on when selecting players.

This event has been played here for many years now and there is a bunch of course history to speculate on. Additionally, UAE dollars have attracted a rather strong field and it has skewed the odds to give some high-quality players very attractive value. And, although it may be tempting to take a big name bomber this week, it is worth noting that five of the last six winners here have been in the 50:1 and higher odds range. The lowest was 2016 winner, Rickie Fowler, at 20:1.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 17   Tommy Fleetwood   (Runners Up:  -16   Dustin Johnson & Pablo Larrazabal)

2016  – 16   Rickie Fowler    (Runner Up:   -15   Thomas Pieters)

2015  – 19   Gary Stal   (Runner Up:  -18   Rory McIlroy)

2014  – 14   Pablo Larrazabal   (Runners Up:  -13   Rory McIlroy & Phil Mickelson)

2013  – 14   Jamie Donaldson   (Runners Up:  -13   Thorbjorn Olesen & Justin Rose)

2012  – 13   Robert Rock   (Runners Up:  -12   Rory McIlroy)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 1/15/2018)

Dustin Johnson  +500

Rory McIlroy  +700

Justin Rose  +800

Henrik Stenson  +1400

Paul Casey  +1600

Branden Grace  +2000

Tommy Fleetwood  +2000

Tyrrell Hatton  +2200

Martin Kaymer  +2800

Matt Kuchar  +2800

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +3300

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +3300

Thomas Pieters  +4000

Bernd Weisberger  +4000

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +5000

Ross Fisher  +5000

Byeong Han An  +5500

Thorbjorn Olesen  +6600

Ian Poulter  +6600

Lee Westwood  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Dustin Johnson

Dylan Fritelli

Dean Burmester

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Branden Grace

Justin Rose

Matthieu Pavon

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Rory McIlroy

Justin Rose

Martin Kaymer

Byeong Hun An

Tyrrell Hatton

Joost Luiten

 

LONGER SHOTS

Hao Tong Li  +8000

Joost Luiten  +8000

Alexander Levy  +8000

Dylan Fritelli  +8000

Paul Dunne  +8000

Chris Paisley  +10000

Dean Burmester  +10000

George Coetzee  +10000

Pablo Larrazabal  +10000

Eddie Pepperell  +12500

Jeunghun Wang  +12500

Nicolas Colsaerts  +12500

Andy Sullivan  +15000

Hideto Tanihara  +15000

Jordan Smith  +15000

Renato Paratore  +15000

Haydn Porteous  +17500

Matthieu Pavon  +17500

Richard Sterne  +17500

Jamie Donaldson  +20000

Scott Vincent  +2000

Phacara Khongwatmai  +25000

Darren Fichardt  +30000

Austin Connelly  +30000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Branden Grace

Martin Kaymer

Ian Poulter

Lee Westwood

Graeme McDowell

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Cheating a bit and fading the “low tier” this week as their just isn’t much value. DJ the clear favorite.

Matthew Fitzpatrick  (33:1) & Thomas Pieters  (40:1).  Both of these players are a good fit for this track. Fitzpatrick’s recent form, from the Hong Kong going back to the Italian Open in mid-October: T19, 12, T8, T11, T9, T15. Just turned 24 years old. Starting to fill out physically. Should start earning elite status pretty soon, if he hasn’t already. Even with this field, it’s curious that he isn’t 26:1 or 28:1.  Pieters is a bit of a stretch. No recent form to point to, but rather good course fit and history. He has a lot of length and experience playing in big events. Scrolling through the list, his name just really popped. Runner up here in 2016. Going with my gut on this one.

Renato Paratore (150:1) & Matthieu Pavon (200:1).  Paratore, after playing in only 4 events in this early 2018 European season is currently 2nd in stroke average, 4th in driving accuracy, 1st in driving distance, 18th in Putts per GIR, 5th putts per round, and 2nd in scrambling. Excellent young player out of Italy and leaderboards are going to start seeing his name a lot. The Frenchman, Pavon, we were on back in November and he has continued to play really well since. 5th at Mauritius. T13 at the DP World Tour in Dubai. He is both bombing off the tee and rolling the ball well right now. He could be an excellent top 10 bet here this week.

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tyrrell Hatton  (22:1)

Rafa Cabrera Bello  (33:1)

Hao Tong Li  (66:1)

Phacara Khongwatmai

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

faded low tier

Rafa Cabrera Bello  (33:1)

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  (45:1)

Joost Luiten  (80:1)

Dean Burmester  (80:1)

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.