THE OVERVIEW
Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – The Abu Dhabi Golf Club is a long, flat course with a significant amount of bunkering. Said bunkers are strategically placed around key landing areas for the bombers off the tee, so driving accuracy is worth keeping an eye on when selecting players.
This event has been played here for many years now and there is a bunch of course history to speculate on. Additionally, UAE dollars have attracted a rather strong field and it has skewed the odds to give some high-quality players very attractive value. And, although it may be tempting to take a big name bomber this week, it is worth noting that five of the last six winners here have been in the 50:1 and higher odds range. The lowest was 2016 winner, Rickie Fowler, at 20:1.
PAST WINNERS
2017 – 17 Tommy Fleetwood (Runners Up: -16 Dustin Johnson & Pablo Larrazabal)
2016 – 16 Rickie Fowler (Runner Up: -15 Thomas Pieters)
2015 – 19 Gary Stal (Runner Up: -18 Rory McIlroy)
2014 – 14 Pablo Larrazabal (Runners Up: -13 Rory McIlroy & Phil Mickelson)
2013 – 14 Jamie Donaldson (Runners Up: -13 Thorbjorn Olesen & Justin Rose)
2012 – 13 Robert Rock (Runners Up: -12 Rory McIlroy)
THE ODDS (Bovada 1/15/2018)
Dustin Johnson +500
Rory McIlroy +700
Justin Rose +800
Henrik Stenson +1400
Paul Casey +1600
Branden Grace +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Martin Kaymer +2800
Matt Kuchar +2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Rafa Cabrera Bello +3300
Thomas Pieters +4000
Bernd Weisberger +4000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +5000
Ross Fisher +5000
Byeong Han An +5500
Thorbjorn Olesen +6600
Ian Poulter +6600
Lee Westwood +6600
WHO’S HOT
Dustin Johnson
Dylan Fritelli
Dean Burmester
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Branden Grace
Justin Rose
Matthieu Pavon
HORSES FOR THE COURSE
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Martin Kaymer
Byeong Hun An
Tyrrell Hatton
Joost Luiten
LONGER SHOTS
Hao Tong Li +8000
Joost Luiten +8000
Alexander Levy +8000
Dylan Fritelli +8000
Paul Dunne +8000
Chris Paisley +10000
Dean Burmester +10000
George Coetzee +10000
Pablo Larrazabal +10000
Eddie Pepperell +12500
Jeunghun Wang +12500
Nicolas Colsaerts +12500
Andy Sullivan +15000
Hideto Tanihara +15000
Jordan Smith +15000
Renato Paratore +15000
Haydn Porteous +17500
Matthieu Pavon +17500
Richard Sterne +17500
Jamie Donaldson +20000
Scott Vincent +2000
Phacara Khongwatmai +25000
Darren Fichardt +30000
Austin Connelly +30000
FAITHFULS
Justin Rose
Branden Grace
Martin Kaymer
Ian Poulter
Lee Westwood
Graeme McDowell
THE ‘FORE’ SOMES
‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).
KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Cheating a bit and fading the “low tier” this week as their just isn’t much value. DJ the clear favorite.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (33:1) & Thomas Pieters (40:1). Both of these players are a good fit for this track. Fitzpatrick’s recent form, from the Hong Kong going back to the Italian Open in mid-October: T19, 12, T8, T11, T9, T15. Just turned 24 years old. Starting to fill out physically. Should start earning elite status pretty soon, if he hasn’t already. Even with this field, it’s curious that he isn’t 26:1 or 28:1. Pieters is a bit of a stretch. No recent form to point to, but rather good course fit and history. He has a lot of length and experience playing in big events. Scrolling through the list, his name just really popped. Runner up here in 2016. Going with my gut on this one.
Renato Paratore (150:1) & Matthieu Pavon (200:1). Paratore, after playing in only 4 events in this early 2018 European season is currently 2nd in stroke average, 4th in driving accuracy, 1st in driving distance, 18th in Putts per GIR, 5th putts per round, and 2nd in scrambling. Excellent young player out of Italy and leaderboards are going to start seeing his name a lot. The Frenchman, Pavon, we were on back in November and he has continued to play really well since. 5th at Mauritius. T13 at the DP World Tour in Dubai. He is both bombing off the tee and rolling the ball well right now. He could be an excellent top 10 bet here this week.
JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Tyrrell Hatton (22:1)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (33:1)
Hao Tong Li (66:1)
Phacara Khongwatmai
GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
faded low tier
Rafa Cabrera Bello (33:1)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (45:1)
Joost Luiten (80:1)
Dean Burmester (80:1)
Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.
