2018 BMW PGA Championship

2018 BMW PGA Championship

 

THE OVERVIEW

Wentworth Club “West Course,” Virginia Water, Surrey, United Kingdom – Wentworth Club, on the Southern outskirts of London, is a storied location that houses the European Tour headquarters. The West Course, which originally opened in 1926, underwent some renovations just over ten years ago by Ernie Els Design. Those renovations added length, bunkering, improved green complexes, and a stream on 18, making it more of a risk-reward finish.

This week, the course will play as a 7,284-yard, par 72. It will feature narrow, tree-lined fairways and firm and fast bentgrass greens.

Higher purse and exemptions for the U.S. Open and Open Championship (for 3 years) brings out the big guns and this field is stacked!

When selecting players this week, we’ll be favoring Englishmen, course history, current form, Driving Accuracy (against the field), and SG-Putting.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017   -11   Alexander Noren    (Runner Up:   -9  Francesco Molinari)

2016   -9   Chris Wood    (Runner Up:   -8   Rikard Karlberg)

2015   -21   An Byeong Hun    (Runner Up:   -15   Thongchai Jaidee, Miguel Angel Jimenez)

2014   -14   Rory McIlroy    (Runner Up:   -13   Shane Lowry)

 

THE ODDS    (Bovada 5/21/2018)

Rory McIlroy  +800

Paul Casey  +1200

Tommy Fleetwood  +1400

Alex Noren  +1400

Branden Grace  +1600

Francesco Molinari  +2200

Ian Poulter  +2800

Byeong Hun An  +3300

Shane Lowry  +3300

Andy Sullivan  +3300

Tyrrell Hatton  +3300

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +3300

Paul Dunne  +3500

Rafael Cabrera Bello  +4000

Alexander Levy  +4000

Andrew Johnston  +5000

Joost Luiten  +5000

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +5000

Adrian Otaegui  +5000

Thomas Piters  +5000

Martin Kaymer  +6600

Aleander Bjork  +6600

Hao Tong Li  +6600

Dylan Frittelli  +6600

Jeunghun Wang  +6600

Chris Wood  +6600

Jorge Campillo  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Adrian Otaegui

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Joakim Lagergren

Alexander Bjork

Julien Guerrier

Jorge Campillo

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Francesco Molinari

Shane Lowry

Alex Noren

Chris Wood

Branden Grace

 

LONGER SHOTS

George Coetzee  +7500

Graeme McDowell  +7500

Julian Suri  +7500

Lee Westwood  +7500

Pablo Larrazabal  +7500

Chris Paisley  +8000

Hideto Tanihara  +8000

Andrea Pavan  +9000

Eddie Pepperell  +9000

Nacho Elvira  +9000

Aaron Rai  +10000

Harold Varner III  +10000

Joakim Lagergren  +10000

Julien Guerrier  +10000

Matt Wallace  +10000

Jordan Smith  +10000

Lucas Bjerregaard  +10000

Thorbjorn Olesen  +10000

Benjamin Hebert  +12500

Erik Van Rooyen  +12500

Mikko Ilonen  +12500

Nicolas Colsaerts  +12500

Thomas Detry  +12500

Richie Ramsay  +14000

 

FAITHFULS

Alex noren

Branden Grace

Shane Lowry

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Martin Kaymer

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Francesco Molinari  (22:1).  The Italian has been relatively quiet this season considering he ranks fifth in SG T2G on the Euro Tour this year. He clearly loves this event: 2nd in 2017, T55 in 2016, 5th in 2015, T7 in 2014. He will need an above-average week with his putting in order to contend, but I feel like he is due for a big finish soon and this is a week he plans for.

Matthew Fitzpatrick  (33:1) & Andrew Johnston  (50:1).  Fitzy is super accurate off the tee, 9.5% better than the field this year on the Euro Tour actually and he is gaining 1.2 strokes with his putter. That seems to be a great combination for the course this week. Add to that the young man is back in his home country and is probably chomping at the bit for this event. He’ll be looking to improve on his T12 from last year and he has all the tools to do so. Beef. Not counting McIlroy, Andrew Johnston is the best Tee-to-Green ball striker on the tour at the moment, gaining a full stroke off the tee and 1.2 on approach. In his last three Euro starts, Beef has finished T12 (Oman), 2nd (Indian), and T12 (Espana).  Now in his fifth year on the tour, his GIR stats are the best they’ve ever been as are his Putts per GIR. This guy is trending all kinds of ways up.

Jordan Smith  (100:1).  I kind of love Hideto Tanihara at 80:1, but there’s too many other great names in this range (and with better value) to take range chalk here. So, I’m going to continue on with my English heavy line up and take the 25-year-old Jordan Smith. As I mentioned earlier, Smith is eight and a half percent better off the tee than the field this season. He is also only a few weeks removed from his season best T3 finish at the Volvo China Open. Thus far into 2018, he is not having quite as good a season as he did last year; however, he has all the weapons, showed signs of it all coming together in China, and will be fired up for this big event on his home soil. (There’s also a couple of Frenchman right here that look great in Guerrier at 100 and Hebert at 125).

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Paul Casey  14:1

Andy Sullivan  40:1

Andrew Johnston  50:1

Jeung-hun Wang  80:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Branden Grace  14:1

Alexander Levy  50:1

Jorge Campillo  66:1

James Heath  300:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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