Golf Picks for the 2018 Czech Masters

THE OVERVIEW

Albatross Golf Resort, Prague, Czech Republic This event last year is where the Ryder Cup Qualifying for the Europe Team began. This week it is the penultimate event for European players to gain points.

The course at Albatross will play as a 7,467 yard, par 72. It is a demanding course with a lot of hazards in play; four lakes were just added during this past winter’s “slight renovation.”

Other changes made since last year include the par-4, 18th hole which now has water all the way along the left side of the fairway.The real beast, however, is the par-4, 17th hole which is generally the toughest. In 2016 the event average score on that hole was 4.28.

However, it is a course made for big hitters and the players who bring their best will be able to score.

This week we’ll be looking at Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, SG:Putting, and Birdie Percentage when making our picks.    

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -13   Haydn Porteous  (Runner Up:   -11   Lee Slattery)

2016  -15   Paul Peterson   (Runner Up:   -14   Thomas Pieters)

2015  -20   Thomas Pieters   (Runner Up:   -17   Pelle Edburg)   

2014  -14   Jamie Donaldson   (Runner Up:   -12   Bradley Dredge)   

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 8/20/2018)

Thomas Pieters  +650

Eddie Pepperell  +1600

Matt Wallace  +2000

Danny Willet  +2200

Dean Burmester  +2500

Lee Westwood  +2500

Andrew Johnston  +3000

Lucas Herbert  +3000

Andrea Pavan  +4000

Benjamin Hebert  +4000

Haydn Porteous  +4000

Lee Slattery  +4000

Nacho Elvira  +4000

Scott Hend: +4000

Scott Vincent  +4000

Thomas Aiken  +4000

Aaron Rai  +4500

Jordan Smith  +4500

Tom Lewis  +4500

J.C. Ritchie  +5000

Jazz Janewattananond  +5000

Lucas Bjerregaard  +5000

Marc Warren  +5000

Matthieu Pavon  +5000

Maximillian Kieffer  +5000

Mikko Korhonen  +5000

Paul Waring  +5000

Matthias Schwab  +5500

Callum Shinkwin  +6600

Connor Syme  +6600

Doug Ghim  +6600

Gaganjeet Bhullar  +6600

James Morrison  +6600

Jeunghun Wang  +6600

Oliver Fisher  +6600

Romain Wattel  +6600

Scott Jamieson  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Paul Waring

Thomas Pieters

Matt Wallace

Thomas Aiken

Maximillian Kieffer

Lucas Herbert

Lee Slattery

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Thomas Pieters

Eddie Pepperell

Paul Peterson

Jamie Donaldson

David Lipsky

Callum Shinkwin

 

LONGER SHOTS

Renato Paratore  +7000

Ashley Chesters  +8000

David Lipsky  +8000

Nicolas Colsaerts  +8000

Nino Bertasio  +8000

Padraig Harrington  +8000

Paul Peterson  +8000

Stephen Gallacher  +8000

Christian Bezuidenhout  +10000

Gavin Green  +10000

Jacques Kruyswijk  +10000

Jamie Donaldson  +10000

Jeff Winther  +10000

Sebastien Gros  +10000

Adam Bland  +10000

Alejandro Canizares  +12500

Andrew Dodt  +12500

Ashun Wu  +12500

Austin Connelly  +12500

Clement Sordet  +12500

Julien Guerrier  +12500

Justin Walters  +12500

Matteo Manassero  +12500

Raphael Jacquelin  +12500

Tapio Pulkkanen  +12500

Phachara Khongwatmai  +15000

Rak Hyun Cho  +17500

John Daly  +50000

 

FAITHFULS

Thomas Pieters

Dean Burmester

Lee Westwood

Andrew Johnston

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Dean Burmester  (25:1).  Pieters is the clear favorite this week, but at 6.5:1 is unplayable for us. And, while Pepperell at 16 is very tempting, Dean Burmester ranks better in our model for this event and is getting a lot more value.  

In the field this week, Burmester ranks second in Driving Distance (behind only Sebastien Gros), 5th in Par 5 Scoring, and 9th in Birdies per Round.  The 29-year-old South African is also coming off his best finish of the Euro season with a T9 at the Scottish Open (which also hints at him being well rested). He has a couple years history at the Czech Masters, finishing T35 in 2016 and T14 in 2017, so he is familiar with the track and trending upwards there as well.

Lucas Herbert  (30:1)  & Scott Vincent (40:1).  Neither of these picks should be surprising to anyone who follows the FGWW podcast. We’ve been playing both of these young pros a lot this season and for good reason.

If this track is going to favor the longer hitters, then it will be hard to find two better in this range (although the defending champ Haydn Porteous fits the bill here nicely, too).

Lucas Herbert ranks 7th in this field in average driving distance, and he is 18 yards longer off the tee against the field.The big-hitting Aussie ranks 3rd in Birdies per Round at 4.3. Herbert is also in form coming off of the second best of his rookie year on the European Tour, a T5 at the Nordea Masters. There he shot rounds of 66, 68, 69, 66. His best finish was T3 at the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open three and a half months ago. So, we really like Lucas Herbert this week.

The young Zimbabwean, Scott Vincent, is also on his first European Tour season. His best finish of the year was a T11 back at the Volvo China Open, but he has 6 top tens on the Asian Tour in 2018. And, unlike Herbert, he has a player profile on the European Tour website. Vincent ranks first in SG: Putting in this field at plus one and a half, outdrives the field by 12 yards, and shows on the first page for Par 5 scoring. It is only a matter of time before this man has a really strong finish in a Euro event and this week could set up nicely for him.

Sebastien Gros (100:1).  There are a few names to get excited about in this range. I got my short list down to the 2016 Paul Peterson at 80:1, Jacques Kruyswijk at 100:1 (he looked quite impressive last week and is as fit as anyone), Gros at 100:1, and Bradley Neil at 150. A case could be made for any of those players this week, but I am putting my money on Sebastien Gros. However, there’s a disclaimer here: I have played Gros a few times in the past couple months and he always seems to play better on the weeks I don’t have a wager on him.

Gros ranks first in the field for Driving Distance at an average of 318.3, but against the field he is Plus 27.3 yards! Those numbers are just insane. On a course made for big hitters, this is, numbers-wise, the biggest one. When I watch Gros on television, to me his swing looks so sound, so compact and smooth, that I am surprised he is as erratic as he can be.  Gros is coming off his best finish in four months, having placed T13 at the Nordea Masters. I’ll be wagering that he carries some of that form into this week.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

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GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

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Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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