2018 Italian Open

2018 Italian Open

 

THE OVERVIEW

Gardagolf Country Club, Soiano del Lago, Brescia, Italy – Gardagolf Country Club is one of the premier golf locations of Northern Italy and is set on a slope beside the extremely picturesque Lake Garda. It features a number of tree-lined fairways, mostly straight with a few sharp doglegs, and water in play on seven holes. This week the course (a combination of the 9-hole “White” & “Red” courses) will play as a 7,201-yard, par 71.

This is the first time in 15 years that this event is being held at Gardagolf. At the 2003 iteration, Sweden’s Mathias Gronberg won by two strokes, and in 1997 Bernhard Langer beat Jose Maria Olazabal in a playoff.

The 2017 Italian Open was won by Tyrrell Hatton just last October. Although that victory came at the Golf Club Milano. Two-time Italian Open winner, Ian Poulter has also joined the field this week.

It must also be noted that Gardagolf Country Club is the home course of Matteo Manassero who grew up playing golf here along with Nino Bertasio.

When selecting players this week, we’ll be leaning heavily on current form (since there is little to no course history to pull from) as well as some SG-T2G and SG-Putting stats.

 

PAST WINNERS

At the Golf Club Milano

2017   -21   Tyrrell Hatton    (Runner Up:   -20  Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Ross Fisher)

2016   -22   Francesco Molinari    (Runner Up:   -21   Danny Willett)

2015   -19   Rikard Karlberg    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Martin Kaymer)

 

BETTING ODDS    (Bovada 5/28/2018)

Francesco Molinari  +900

Alexander Noren  +1000

Tommy Fleetwood  +1100

Ian Poulter  +1800

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +2000

Rafael Cabrera Bello  +2200

Ross Fisher  +2800

Tyrrell Hatton  +2800

Andy Sullivan  +3300

Paul Dunne  +3300

Alexander Levy  +4000

Joost Luiten  +4500

Lee Westwood  +4500

Lucas Bjerregaard  +4500

Alexander Bjork  +5000

Graeme McDowell  +5000

Jorge Campillo  +5000

Adrian Otaegui  +5500

Andrew Johnston  +5500

Hao Tong Li  +5500

Matt Wallace  +5500

Chris Wood  +6600

Dylan Fritelli  +6600

George Coetzee  +6600

Sam Horsfield  +6600

Thomas Pieters  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Lucas Bjerregaard

Adrian Otaegui

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Joakim Lagergren

Alexander Bjork

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Not enough course history this week. 

 

LONGER SHOTS

Dean Burmester  +7000

Martin Kaymer  +7000

Chris Paisley  +7500

Eddie Pepperell  +7500

Jeung Hun Wang  +7500

Pablo Larrazabal  +7500

Andrea Pavan  +8000

Benjamin Hebert  +8000

Erik Van Rooyen  +8000

Joakim Lagergren  +8000

Julien Guerrier  +8000

Matteo Manassero  +8000

Mike Lorenzo-Vera  +8000

Nacho Elvira  +8000

Robert Rock  +8000

Thomas Detry  +8000

Thorbjorn Olesen  +8000

Fabrizio Zanotti  +9000

Hideto Tanihara  +9000

Jordan Smith  +10000

Darren Fichardt  +12500

Maximilian Kieffer  +12500

Mikko Korhonen  +12500

Sebastien Gros  +12500

Renato Paratore  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Francesco Molinari

Alex Noren

Ian Poulter

Lee Westwood

Graeme McDowell

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Ross Fisher  (28:1).  Call me greedy, fading the six higher names and landing on Fisher at 28 to 1, but he showed serious signs of life last week at the BMW PGA Championship. Finishing in a very respectable T8 alongside Fitzpatrick and Cabrera-Bello, it was only Fisher’s second top 10 of the season (in six total events played on the Euro Tour in 2018). It should also be noted that his last top 10 finish of the 2017 season was last October at the (wait for it) Italian Open, albeit at the Golf Club Milano. I kind of like Poulter here as a One-N-Done pick, but the chances of Fisher getting lightning hot are better than anyone else at this price. I expect him to bring his good form over and spend another week moving up the Race to Dubai list.

Lucas Bjerregaard  (45:1) & Alexander Bjork  (50:1).  Lucas Bjerregaard is on a sick tear right now. He seriously made my asshole pucker up a bit on Sunday when he hit that 4th straight birdie on Sunday. He shot TWO rounds of 65 last week at Wentworth on his way to collecting his biggest check of his career. His last three finishes are pure fire: T2 BMW PGA, 5th at the Sicilian Open, and 6th at the Volvo China Open. Currently in his sixth year on the Euro Tour and really playing well. Alexander Bjork has also been in excellent form of late: T3 at the Trophee Hassan, WON the Volvo China Open, and even cashed a nice 50k Euro check last week finishing T27 at the BMW PGA. Only in his third full year on the tour and starting to move up in class.

Joakim Lagergren  (80:1).  Joakim Lagergren is having an excellent season thus far. He just won a couple of weeks ago in Sicily and is another “player to watch” on this year’s Euro Tour. However, I want it to be known that I will also be placing some ill-advised plays on Manassero (with his association to this track, I just can’t resist).

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Ian Poulter  18:1

Andy Sullivan  33:1

Alexander Levy  40:1

Andrea Pavan  80:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Ross Fisher  25:1

Alexander Bjork  50:1

Sam Horsfield  50:1

Sebastien Gros  150:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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