THE OVERVIEW

The Dutch, Spijk, The Netherlands The European Tour makes the short trip over from Switzerland to The Netherlands for the 99th edition of the (Dutch) KLM Open. For the third straight year, the open will be played at The Dutch, a Colin Montgomerie design about 45 minutes south of Amsterdam that opened back in 2011. 

This week The Dutch will play as a 6,983-yard par 71. It is a short links-style track with a ton of water and significant undulation in the form of rolling fairways, steep gorse mounds, and green-side runoff areas. The course consists of fescue fairways and rough and large bentgrass greens.

The weather shouldn't be too much of a factor this week as it is currently projected to be mostly sunny and calm with the gusty winds associated with this course only showing up for the final round on Sunday.

British players have won this event six of the last eleven times, but the Germans, Belgians, and Swedish players also often fare well here. For our model this week, we'll be looking at current form, course history, GIR, Scrambling, and SG: Putting when making our player selections.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -15   Romain Wattel  (Runner Up:    -14   Austin Connelly)

2016  -19   Joost Luiten   (Runner Up:    -16   Bernd Weisberger)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 9/10/2018)

Eddie Pepperell  +1600

Lee Westwood  +1600

Matt Wallace  +2000

Chris Wood  +2500

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +2500

Mike Lorenzo-Vera  +2800

Andy Sullivan  +2800

Erik van Rooyen  +2800

Ross Fisher  +3300

Soren Kjeldsen  +3300

Haotong Li  +3500

Thomas Detry  +3500

Andrea Pavan  +4000

Matthew Southgate  +4000

Fabrizio Zanotti  +4000

Nacho Elvira  +4000

Padraig Harrington  +4000

Jordan Smith  +4500

Alexander Levy +5000

Adrian Otaegui  +5000

Andrew Johnston  +5000

George Coetzee  +5000

Hideto Tanihara  +5000

Joakim Lagergren  +5000

Maximilian Kieffer  +5000

Paul Dunne  +5000

Nino Bertasio  +5500

Jorge Campillo  +6000

Martin Kaymer  +6000

Scott Jamieson  +6000

Benjamin Hebert  +6000

David Horsey  +6600

Haydn Porteous  +6600

Lucas Herbert  +6600

Mikko Korhonen  +6600

Phachara Khongwatmai  +6600

Richard McEvoy  +6600

Richie Ramsay  +6600

Romian Wattel  +6600

Sam Horsfield  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Lee Westwood

Matt Wallace

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

Andrea Pavan

Erik Van Rooyen

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Romain Wattel

Austin Connelly

George Coetzee

Eddie Pepperell

Justin Walters

David Horsey

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

 

LONGER SHOTS

Aaron Rai  +7500

Darren Fichardt  +8000

Jeunghun Wang  +8000

Justin Walters  +8000

Scott Hend  +8000

Shubankar Sharma  +8000

Nicolas Colsaerts  +9000

Pablo Larrazabal  +9000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout  +10000

Matthias Schwab  +10000

Wade Ormsby  +10000

Ashun Wu  +11000

David Lipsky  +11000

Paul Waring  +11000

Ashley Chesters  +12500

Bradley Dredge  +12500

Julien Guerrier  +12500

Matthieu Pavon +12500

James Morrison  +14000

Oliver Fisher  +14000

Renato Paratore  +14000

Mikko Ilonen  +14000

Paul Peterson  +14000

Connor Syme  +15000

Jonathan Thomson  +15000

Kevin Stadler  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Lee Westwood

Eddie Pepperell

Padriag Harrington

Fabrizio Zanotti

Martin Kaymer

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Eddie Pepperell  (16:1).  Never like to go chalk, but we have a soft spot for Eddie Pepperell. Lee Westwood looks equally good (also at 16:1). His current form is rock solid. And even Mike Lorenzo-Vera at 28:1 looks tempting; he very nearly won last week in Switzerland. However, last week we took the extra value over the chalk and it cost us. So, this week we are riding the super-wily, outspoken, 27-year-old Englishman. 

Pepperell finished T3 in this event last year, shooting 69, 68, 69, 65. Eddie does not show near the top of this field in GIR or SG:Putting, but he does rank 7th in Scrambling. And for current form, the fiery young pro has made six straight cuts and racked up three top tens in that time as well, including a solo 2nd at the Scottish Open and T6 at Carnoustie. With the track this week set to play as a traditional links layout, that looks really good to us.   

Thomas Detry  (35:1)  &  Joakim Lagergren  (50:1).  We haven't mentioned Thomas Detry very much since playing him a few times early this season. He's had a relatively quiet year considering he's earned upwards of 440,000 Euros. He's tallied three top tens and recently had back-to-back T13s at the Porsche European Open and Nordea Masters. He hasn't had his best results on links courses, that is the one cause for pause with this selection. However, he does show rather well in our model this week. The young Belgian is hitting 71% of greens (3.4% better than the field) and gains half a stroke (+5.6) putting. He's the chalk in this range and we're going to gamble on him.

Joakim Lagergren is the much better choice here when it comes to course form. The 26-year-old Swede placed T20 here in 2016 and T9 in 2017. Lagergren is also having an outstanding year, having won his first Euro Tour event back in May at the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open. He doesn't show up in our model for this week, but his overall links prowess makes up for that.

Pablo Larrazabal  (90:1).  We love Pablo Larrazabal at this 90 number. The Spanish pro has cooled off considerably after starting the season fairly well. Larrazabal tallied 3 top 5s in his first six events to begin 2018. Recently, however, he has missed the cut in 5 of his last 8 starts. A T16 last week at the Omega European Masters could point to a slight return to form (and The Dutch may set up a little like Crans-sur-Sierre in that it's a shorter track which forces strong iron and putting play). In those two categories, the Spainard shows quite well, hitting 71% of greens (2.2% better than the field) and gaining more than half a stroke (+.63) on the greens. Even given his poorer recent form, getting Pablo at 90:1 seems like too good a deal to pass up. 

Some of the other names to consider in this range:  Justin Walters  80:1,  Christian Bezhuidenhout  100:1,  Ashun Wu  110:1,  and Austin Connelly  125:1.  

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

n/a

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

n/a

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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