2018 Open de Espana

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Open de Espana

THE OVERVIEW

Centro Nacional de Golf, Madrid, Spain – The course this week will be playing very dry and very firm. It has only hosted two Euro events in the past 11 years, the 2009 Madrid Masters and the 2007 Open de Espana, which saw Charl Schwartzel winning with a low total of 16 under. So, there is little course history to draw on. It is said that hitting greens here will a determining factor to playing well.

NOTE: Jon Rahm went to school and played golf here for two years. Heavily favored, but hard to tell how much juice he’ll have left after a big week at Augusta.

We’ll be looking at SG-Approach, GIR, and SG Putting when making our selections this week.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017    No Tournament

2016   +1   Andrew Johnston    (Runner Up:   E   Joost Luiten)

2015   -10   James Morrison    (Runners Up:   -6   Edouard Espana, David Howell, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Francesco Molinari)

2014   -4   Miguel Angel Jimenez    (Runners Up, Playoff:    Richard Green, Thomas Pieters)

 

THE ODDS    (Bovada 4/9/2018)

Jon Rahm  +400

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +1400

Pablo Larrazabal  +2000

Paul Dunne  +2000

George Coetzee  +2200

Andrew Johnston  +2500

Andy Sullivan  +3300

Eddie Pepperell  +3300

Jorge Campillo  +3300

Matt Wallace  +3300

Seungsu Han  +3300

Dean Burmester  +4000

Thorbjorn Olesen  +4000

Victor Dubuisson  +4000

Stephen Gallacher  +5000

Thomas Detry  +5000

Adrian Otaegui  +5500

Alexander Bjork  +5500

Jeunghun Wang  +5500

David Horsey  +6600

Fabrizio Zanotti  +6600

Matthieu Pavon  +6600

Mike Lorenzo Vera  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Jon Rahm

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Paul Dunne

Jorge Campillo

Adrian Otaegui

Seungsu Han

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Not enough recent course data. 

 

LONGER SHOTS

Hideto Tanihara  +7500

Jordan Smith  +7500

Miyazoto Yusaku  +7500

Nicolas Colsaerts  +7500

Scott Jamieson  +7500

Aaron Rai  +8000

David Lipsky  +8000

Jamie Donaldson  +8000

Marcus Kinhult  +8000

Erik Van Rooyen  +9000

Richie Ramsay  +9000

Callum Shinkiwn  +10000

Gavin Green  +1000

Renato Paratore  +10000

Richard Sterne  +10000

Maximilian Kieffer  +12500

Mikko Korhonen  +12500

Alvaro Quiros  +20000

Edoardo Molinari  +20000

Gregory Bourdy  +20000

Tapio Pulkkanen  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Rafa Cabera Bello

Andrew Johnston

Victor Dubuisson

Jamie Donaldson

Richard Sterne

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Pablo Larrazabal  (20:1).  Easy to fade the 4:1 favorite, especially when he has just traveled halfway across the globe after a mentally and emotionally draining week in Georgia. I think Rafa is more inclined to have some fuel left in the tank, but I am going to take another Spaniard, one Pablo Larrazabal, who didn’t just have to take a long flight after a tough event. Larrazabal is a bit of a Euro darling and ranks very well in both Greens Hit in Regulation and SG-Putting. Add to that his recent finishes off T3 at the Maybank, T4 at the Qatar Masters, and T4 at the Hero Indian Open, and I am more than happy to take a solid Euro Tour Spaniard that is showing solid current form.

Jorge Campillo  (33:1)  &  Adrian Otaegui (55:1).  Campillo is a no-brainer for me in this range. Spanish. Check. Form. Check. Four top 15s in his last six events, including 2nd at the Maybank and T4 at the very challenging course in Oman. Campillo also ranks 11th in  SG Putting on the Euro Tour this season. Consider me sold. I almost took Victor Dubuisson here, but I have to keep the Spanish train rolling with Adrian Otaegui. His form is solid with a T12 and T10 in his last two events and he hits greens almost as well as anyone. You see a trend here?

Erik Van Rooyen  (90:1).  I was all over Van Rooyen earlier this season when he was at 40:1 numbers. Give me 90? Yes, thank you, more please. SG-Approach? 10th. GIR? 3rd. SG – Off the Tee? 26th. 2nd at the Joburg. 10th at the Tshwane. If any other nationality other than Spanish is going to play well here this week, which could it be? Charl Schwartzel won here in 2007. South African? Count me in on Van Rooyen.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Andrew Johnston  25:1

Seungsu Han  35:1

Ryan Fox  66:1

Erik Van Rooyen  90:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Andrew Johnston  25:1

Matt Wallace  40:1

Sam Horsfield  66:1

Jordan Smith  80:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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