THE OVERVIEW

Green Eagle Golf Course, Hamburg, Germany - After that thrilling week in Carnoustie, the European Tour jumps over to Germany and it brings a few of the PGA regulars along with it. Like last year, the European Open will be played this week at Green Eagle Golf Course, a monster long track just outside Hamburg. The course this week will play as a 7,583-yard par 72. It features 5 par fives with three of them placed in the final four holes.

Last year Jordan Smith had his break out win here after beating Alexander Levy in a playoff. The course saw quite a bit of rain that week making it play rather soft and even lengthier. Due to the heat and dryness, this year the course should play differently. The field is a weaker one than we've seen the past few weeks, and it will be interesting to see if the favorites can stay sharp after last week's peak of mental and physical demands. It may allow someone from further up the board who has had a small rest to step in and claim a title.

This week we'll be looking at Driving Accuracy, Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, and SG: Putting.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -13   Jordan Smith  (Runner Up, Playoff:   Alexander Levy)  @ Green Eagle

2016  -19   Alexander Levy   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Ross Fisher)  @ Bad Griesbach

2015  -17   Thongchai Jaidee   (Runner Up:   -16   Graeme Storm)   @ Bad Griesbach

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 7/23/2018)

Patrick Reed  +800

Paul Casey  +900

Bryson DeChambeau  +1200

Pat Perez  =2000

Charl Schwartzel  +2200

Alexander Levy  +2800

Adrian Otaegui  +3000

Jordan Smith  +3000

Aaron Rai  +3300

Lucas Bjerregaard  +3300

Mikko Ilonen  +4000

Nacho Elvira  +4000

Richard Sterne  +4000

Sam Horsfield  +4000

Scott Hend  +4000

Soren Kjeldsen  +4000

Thomas Detry  +4000

Hideto Tanihara  +5000

Nicolas Colsaerts  +5000

Ashley Chesters  +5500

Lucas Herbert  +5500

Stephen Gallacher  +6000

Matthias Schwab  +6600

Matthieu PAvon  +6600

Mike Lorenzo-Vera  +6600

Miyazoto Yusaku  +6600

Zander Lombard  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Patrick Reed

Thorbjorn Olesen

Zander Lombard

Sam Horsfield

Ashley Chesters

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Only one year of data. 

Jordan Smith

Alexander Levy

Zander Lombard

Adrian Otaegui

Ashley Chesters

 

LONGER SHOTS

Oliver Fisher  +7500

David Horsey  +8000

Jazz Jannewattananond  +8000

Julien Guerrier  +8000

Justin Walters  +8000

Paul Peterson  +8000

Callum Shinkwin  +9000

James Morrison  +9000

Jeunghun Wang  +9000

Raphael Jacquelin  +9000

Christian Bezuidenhout  +10000

Florian Fritsch  +10000

Lorenzo Gagli  +10000

Marcel Siem  +10000

Matteo Manassero  +10000

Maximilian Kieffer  +10000

Nick Cullen  +10000

Ricardo Gouveia  +10000

Tapio Pulkkanen  +10000

Bradley Dredge  +12500

Connor Syme  +12500

David Lipsky  +12500

Haydn Porteous  +12500

Scott Jamieson  +12500

Sebastien Gros  +12500

Edoardo Molinari  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Patrick Reed

Charl Schwartzel

Alexander Levy

Stephen Gallacher

Scott Jamieson

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Alexander Levy  (28:1).  The short list came down to Perez, DeChambeau, and Levy. We're going to go with the extra value, proven course form/knowledge, and potential to go super low that Levy provides. Levy has cooled off a little since his world class form earlier this yearl however, his history in this event is super impressive having finished first and second the last two years at this venue. High value at this number in this range and all upside on history.  

Lucas Bjerregaard  (33:1)  & Lucas Herbert (55:1).  Team Lucas in this mid-tier. It took an awful lot of restraint to not pull the trigger on Jordan Smith here, but we've been on him a lot lately and probably need to give him his space. Bjerregaard has been having a stellar year, he finished T3 in the strong field at the BMW PGA Championship back in May and T5 at the BMW International just two weeks later. He has struggled a bit in the last three opens having missed the cuts at both the Scottish and Irish, but he is getting away from that links golf and back to a style that should better suit his game. Lucas Herbert is a bit of a risky pick, but the super young Australian is uber-long off the tee (which should serve him well this week) and just has too much potential. Herbert is currently 3rd on the Euro Tour for Driving Distance averaging 21 yards longer than the field with the big stick. He is also ranking very well in SG:T2G for the year even though he has yet to be added to the players list on the europeantour website. Herbert also shot some ridiculous score in this US Open qualifying, medalling in the Oregon region. 

Julien Guerrier (80:1).  We have a a good feeling about the Frenchman this week. Driving Distance is there (+14 yards on the field) and par-5 scoring is super strong, too. With all of those par 5s coming down the closing stretch, Guerrier should be able to climb that board better than most.  

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

n/a

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Charl Scwartzel  25:1

Zander Lombard  66:1

Aaron Rai  33:1

Jose Filipe Lima  150:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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