THE OVERVIEW

Gullane Golf Club, Gullane, East Lothian, Scotland - This week the Rolex Series continues across the North Atlantic Ocean to the town of Gullane in East Lothian, Scotland where golf has been played for over 350 years. It also brings a few big names from the other side of the pond as they seek to get acclimated to Scotland and get a few practice rounds of legit links golf in ahead of next week's Open Championship at Carnoustie (which is only about 20 miles north of Gullane as the crow flies).

The Scottish Open was last held at Gullane Golf Club in 2015 when Rickie Fowler narrowly beat Frenchman Raphael Jacquelin and Matt Kuchar to take the title. The leaderboard from that year will be the only course history to glean any information from.

The course this week, like in 2015, will be a composite of courses #1 and #2 and play as a 7,133-yard, par 70. It will play up and downhill along the coast and feature relatively narrow fairways, smallish greens guarded by pot bunkers, and some pretty nasty native grass areas. Overall, it will be firm and fast and force players to get creative with some of their club selections.

For our model this week, we'll be looking at SG: T2G, Scrambling and Putting, links experience/success, and current form.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -13   Rafa Cabrera Bello   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Callum Shinkwin)  @ Dundonald Links

2016  -14   Alexander Noren   (Runner Up:   -13  Tyrrell Hatton)  @ Castle Stuart Golf Links

2015  -12  Rickie Fowler   (Runners Up:   -11   Raphael Jacquelin, Matt Kuchar)   @ Gullane Golf Club

2014  -16   Justin Rose  (Runner Up:   -14   Kristoffer Broberg)   @ Royal Aberdeen Golf Club

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 7/9/2018)

Justin Rose +900

Rickie Fowler +1000

Patrick Reed +1800

Tyrrell Hatton +1800

Hideki Matsuyama +2000

Matt Kuchar +2200

Andy Sullivan +2200

Russell Knox +2200

Phil Mickelson +2500

Rafa Cabrera-Bello +2500

Louis Oosthuizen +2500

Ian Poulter +2500

Chris Wood +4000

Alexander Bjork +5000

Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000

Ryan Fox +5000

Thomas Pieters +5000

Peter Uihlein +5500

Paul Dunne +5500

Martin Kaymer +5500

Jorge Campillo +5500

Charley Hoffman +6000

Ross Fisher +6000

Julian Suri +6600

Haotong Li +6600

Lee Westwood +6600

Dylan Frittelli +6600

Kiradech Aphibarnrat +7000

 

HOT PLAYERS

Russell Knox

Jon Rahm

Ryan Fox

Jorge Campillo

Thorbjorn Olesen

Chris Wood

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

From the 2015 Scottish Open at Gullane Golf Club.  

Rickie Fowler

Raphael Jacquelin

Matt Kuchar

Eddie Pepperell

Marc Warren

Ross Fisher

 

LONGER SHOTS

Graeme McDowell +8000

Kevin Chappell +9000

Lucas Bjerregaard +10000

Matt Wallace +10000

Matthew Southgate +10000

Mike Lorenzo-Vera +10000

Eddie Pepperell +10000

Erik Van Rooyen +10000

Danny Willett +10000

Cameron Smith +10000

Alexander Levy +10000

Adrian Otaegui +10000

Thomas Detry +11000

Soren Kjeldsen +12500

Andrew Johnston +12500

George Coetzee +12500

Nicolas Colsaerts +12500

Martin Laird +12500

Luke List +12500

Jordan Smith +12500

Joakim Lagergren +15000

Mikko Ilonen +15000

Padraig Harrington +15000

Fabrizio Zanotti +15000

Dean Burmester +15000

Ashley Chesters +15000

Aaron Rai +15000

Benjamin Hebert +15000

Sam Horsfield +16000

Robert Rock +16000

Shubhankar Sharma +16000

Richie Ramsay +17500

Raphael Jacquelin +17500

Pablo Larrazabal +17500

Nacho Elvira +17500

Matthieu Pavon +17500

Marc Warren +20000

Chris Paisley +20000

David Horsey +20000

Hideto Tanihara +20000

Jeunghun Wang +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Andy Sullivan

Lee Westwood

Graeme McDowell

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Louis Oosthuizen  (25:1).  Very difficult decisions near the top of the board this week. Rose is probably the clear favorite as he and Fowler are both chalk at 10:1 (and Fowler has not been in his usual solid form of late; there's no doubt Rickie's win here in 2015 gives him a few extra points with the odds makers). Hatton is a great pick at 18, as are Sullivan and Knox at 20, but we are going down to Louis Oosthuizen at 25:1. Louis shows extremely well in our model for this week. He is gaining 1.4 strokes T2G this Euro season (behind Knox and Reed and just a fraction ahead of Rose). But his off-the-tee game is second only to Andy Sullivan and his scrambling stats are behind only Reed. Louis is in rather good form at the moment too, finishing T16 or better in 6 of his last 9 starts, including a T16 at the recent U.S. Open. His links experience/performance is solid, too. He has missed the cut in the past two Open Championships, but he won in 2010 in that historic finish at St. Andrews. We like the value for Louis at 25 and will be looking for him to have a good week. 

Jorge Campillo  (50:1)  & Ross Fisher  (50:1).  Jorge Campillo absolutely lit up Ballyliffin last Sunday tying the week's low round with a very impressive 65 (Erik Van Rooyen also fired a 65 in Round 2). He missed the playoff by a single shot and looked at times as if he was going to outright win that event. Campillo has been a little overlooked the last couple months with his fellow countryman Adrian Otaegui eating up some of the spotlight, but Campillo has been playing equally well, racking up 6 top five finishes in his last 12 starts. Those finishes include his 3rd last week at the Irish Open, a T8 at the Open de France, a T3 at the Volvo China Open, and a T5 at the Open de Espana. The guy has been getting it done and is a steal at 50:1.

Chris Wood, Dylan Fritelli, and Peter Uihlein are all great picks in this range, but for our second mid-tier player we are going with Ross Fisher. This is a bit of a gamble as Fisher has been showing almost no decent form lately. He in recent starts he has a slew of missed cuts and low-board finishes. The one high point was his T8 finish at the BMW PGA Championship. However, his off-the-tee numbers are not bad this season and that might be a crucial component to getting around Gullane. Fisher is the kind of player who can get hot quick and he has plays well on links set ups. We're willing to take the gamble on him at 50:1 this week.   

Jordan Smith  (100:1).  Our choice in this high tier came down to Eddie Pepperell and Jordan Smith this week and we are going with Jordan Smith. Pepperell notched a great win earlier in the season at the Qatar Masters (in between four missed cuts) and just hasn't done enough since for us to get excited about him here. Jordan Smith on the other hand, while also erratic, has chalked up a T3 at the China Open, a T8 at the Italian Open, and a T21 at the Open de France. Smith also has legit driving accuracy numbers and is gaining a full stroke on the field T2G. We've been on Smith a bunch this season and see no reason to give up on the 25-year-old Englishman just yet. 

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Ian Poulter  22:1

Chris Wood  40:1

Peter Uihlein  50:1

Erik Van Rooyen  100:1

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Andy Sullivan  20:1

Dylan Fritelli  50:1

Jorge Campillo  50:1

Matt Wallace  100:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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