2018 Trophee Hassan II

Fantasy Golf Picks for the 2018 Trophee Hassan II

THE OVERVIEW

Royal Golf Dar Es Salam, Rabat, Morocco – Considered one of the finer courses in Africa, the Royal Golf Dar Es Salam (Red Course) is a Robert Trent Jones design that is somewhat reminiscent of Valderrama. It’s an extremely long and flat par 72, measuring up to 7,615 yards. It features tree-lined kikuyu fairways and poa greens (4 of which were enlarged in a 2010 renovation that also added back tees and a fair amount of newer bunkers).

We will be looking at Driving Accuracy, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and maybe even a little Scrambling when selecting players this week.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017   -9   Edoardo Molinari    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Paul Dunne)

2016   -5   Wang Jeung-hun    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Nacho Elvira)

2015   -10   Richie Ramsay    (Runner Up:   -9   Romain Wattel)

2014   -19   Alejandro Canizares    (Runner Up:   -15   Andy Sullivan)

 

THE ODDS    (Bovada 4/16/2018)

Paul Dunne  +1200

Joost Luiten  +1400

George Coetzee  +1600

Alexander Levy  +1800

Thomas Pieters  +1800

Andy Sullivan  +2000

Pablo Larrazabal  +2000

Chris Wood  +2800

Jorge Campillo  +2800

Seung Su Han  +3300

Aaron Rai  +4000

Eddie Pepperell  +4000

Matt Wallace  +4000

Adrian Otaegui  +5000

Dean Burmester  +5000

Jeunghun Wang  +5000

Nacho Elvira  +5000

Sam Horsfield  +5000

Alexander Bjork  +6600

Benjamin Hebert  +6600

David Horsey  +6600

Jordan Smith  +6600

Matthieu Pavon  +6600

Renato Paratore  +6600

Richie Ramsay  +6600

Robert Rock  +6600

Thomas Detry  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Paul Dunne

George Coetzee

Nacho Elvira

Sam Horsfield

Jorge Campillo

 

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Edoardo Molinari

Jeunghun Wang

Paul Dunne

Nacho Elvira

Robert Rock

Renato Paratore

 

LONGER SHOTS

Erik Van Rooyen  +7000

Fabrizio Zanotti  +7000

Haydn Porteous  +7000

Michael Lorenzo-Vera  +7000

Miyazoto Yusaku  +7500

Alejandro Canizares  +8000

Callum Shinkwin  +8000

Julien Guerrier  +8000

Mikko Ilonen  +8000

Nicolas Colsaerts  +8000

Richard Sterne  +8000

Romain Wattel  +8000

Sean Crocker  +8000

Edoardo Molinari  +1000

Gavin Green  +10000

Marc Warren  +10000

Marcus Kinhult  +10000

Ryan Fox  +10000

Scott Jamieson  +10000

Sebastien Gros  +10000

Andrea Pavan  +12500

Nino Bertasio  +12500

Romain Langasque  +12500

Lucas Bjerregaard  +15000

Matthew Southgate  +15000

Mikko Korhonen  +15000

Tapio Pulkkanen  +15000

Phachara Khongwatmai  +2000

 

FAITHFULS

Joost Luiten

Andy Sullivan

Chris Wood

David Horsey

Richie Ramsay

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Joost Luiten (14:1).  I really like Joost Luiten in Morocco this week. Both Dunne and Levy made the short list, but Dunne is coming off of a big week and Levy, while he ranks ridiculously well in the model I looked at, doesn’t rank as well in course form. Luiten in his last three Euro starts has finished T11 at the Maybank, Winner at the Oman, T9 at the Hero Indian Open (not including a T37 at the WGC-Mexico). He ranks well for both strokes gained and Scrambling, and add to that a T15 in Rabat last year. And, when I checked Valderrama which I believe to be a fairly solid correlation, Luiten finished 2nd there at the 2016 Open de Espana and 2nd at the 2017 Valderrama Masters. Dunne and Levy both look really good this week, but I am going with the 31-year-old from Netherlands, Joost Luiten (currently 75 OWGR and 20th on RTD).

Adrian Otaegui (50:1) & Aaron Rai (40:1).  This is my second week in a row on Otaegui. Three straight top 15s for the 25-year-old Spaniard: T10 Oman, T10 Qatar Masters, T12 Open de Espana. He has only shot over 71 twice in his last 24 rounds. Ranks well in Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Scrambling. T22 here in 2016 and T12 at the Valderrama Masters last year. I really like Otaegui. Renato Paratore is a young fave of mine, and I was really close to taking him at 66:1, but I had to fall on Aaron Rai. Rai is showing some current form after a T9 at the Hero and a T12 last week. His putter has been hot lately and he has been gaining strokes off the tee. T34 here last year and T8 at the 2017 Valderrama Masters. .

Nino Bertasio (125:1).  Anyone listening to this should absolutely take Chris Hanson, Sean Crocker, Sebastien Gros, or Scott Jamieson, or any other number of names instead of Nino Bertasio.  Nino has zero current form and he does not show in my model at all. However, his Robert Trent Jones history is rather strong. T5 here in 2016, T8 at the 2017 Valderrama Masters, and T11 at the 2016 Open de Espana. Missed three consecutive cuts before T34 last week in Spain. If the 31-year-old Italian is going to kick start his season, this might be a place where he does that.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Alexander Levy  20:1

Seungsu Han  40:1

Jeunghun Wang  66:1

Erik Van Rooyen  80:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Andy Sullivan  25:1

Renato Paratore  66:1

Robert Rock  66:1

Edoardo Molinari  125:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.