2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational

THE OVERVIEW

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Bay Hill, Florida – Bay Hill is a legendary track that will play as a 7400-yard, par 72 this week. Ample water hazards and tall, thick rough will make for a nice challenge as well as force some drivers to stay in the bag on a few tee boxes. The par 5s will be ripe for scoring and the par 3s will play relatively long.

Bombers tend to do well here, but precision is more important. Upon looking at the numbers it is immediately noticeable that Tiger Woods’ return to form has skewed the odds some. That’s probably because he’s won four of his five starts at Bay Hill (the last one being in 2013).

This week we’ll be looking at SG Approach, Par-5 Scoring, SG Putting, and some course history (there’s tons of it).

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 11   Marc Leishman   (Runner Up:   -10   Charley Hoffman, Kevin Kisner)

2016  -17   Jason Day   (Runner Up:   -16   Kevin Chappell)

2015  -19   Matt Every   (Runners Up:   -18   Henrik Stenson)

2014  -13   Matt Every   (Runner Up:   -12   Keegan Bradley)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 3/12/2018)

Tiger Woods   +550

Jason Day  +1200

Justin Rose  +1400

Rory McIlroy  +1600

Rickie Fowler  +2000

Tommy Fleetwood  +2200

Hideki Matsuyama  +2200

Tyrrell Hatton  +2500

Henrik Stenson  +3000

Patrick Reed  +3000

Alex Noren  +3000

Bubba Watson  +3300

Adam Scott  +3500

Marc Leishman  +3500

Brian Harman  +4000

Louis Oosthuizen  +5000

Brandt Snedeker  +6600

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +6600

Emiliano Grillo  +6600

Kevin Kisner  +6600

Kevin Chappell  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Jason Day

Alex Noren

Luke List

Bubba Watson

Tommy Fleetwood

Justin Rose

Tiger Woods

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Tiger Woods

Marc Leishman

Henrik Stenson

Tyrrell Hatton

Emiliano Grillo

Francesco Molinari

Hudson Swafford

 

LONGER SHOTS

Luke List  +7500

Zach Johnson  +7500

Kevin Na  +8000

Jason Kokrak  +8000

Jamie Lovemark  +8000

Cameron Smith  +8000

Francesco Molinari  +8000

Ryan Moore  +8000

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +8000

Pat Perez  +8000

James Hahn  +8000

Patton Kizzire  +10000

Russell Knox  +10000

Lucas Glover  +10000

Martin Laird  +10000

Ollie Schniederjans  +10000

Sam Burns  +10000

Scott Stallings  +10000

Keegan Bradley  +11000

Kyle Stanley  +11000

Ben Martin  +15000

Hao Tong Li  +16000

Sam Saunders  +16000

Shane Lowry  +16000

Peter Uihlein  +17500

Sean O’Hair  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Alex Noren

Louis Oosthuizen

Zach Johnson

Francesco Molinari

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tommy Fleetwood  (22:1). 4th at the Honda. 14th in Mexico. For 12 measured rounds, he has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. Ranks well in both Par-5 Scoring and SG Field. Precise ball striker and long iron player. The euro contingent is well-represented this week and I like Fleetwood’s chances of leading the pack.

Luke List (75:1) & Jamie Lovemark (80:1).  I like the way List is trending. 2nd at the Honda. T16 last week at the Valspar. Ranks well in SGT2G and SGField over just the last 5 rolling. His length should serve him well here where he can attack these pins and tear up the par 5s. Dude can go seriously low on occasion and in his current form going into this track, I like his chances. Jamie Lovemark has been playing excellent golf over the last 4 events: T26 at the Genesis, 7th at the Honda, T16 at Valspar (and that doesn’t include his T5 at the CJ Cup last October). He shows well in the model for SGAPP, SGT2G, and SGField. He also live in Florida and tends to play well here. He has world class skill, it just doesn’t all come together for him very often. I’m pulling for him here at Bay Hill where he finished T23 in 2017 and T6 in 2016..   (Francesco Molinari will also be getting a wager based on the fact that in the last 4 years he has finished no worse than T17 at Bay Hill!   T7, T9, T17, T5.) 

Scott Piercy (110:1).  In the past when I’ve taken Piercy I’ve had to add the disclaimer that he is a personal fave of mine. This time however, he is absolutely blowing up the model, so no disclaimer needed. For both rolling 10 and rolling 5 stats, Piercy is first in SGAPP. In SGT2G, he is first and fifth, respectively. He has length, experience, and poise, and, if he is finding some of his past form, he can absolutely compete here.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Alex Noren  28:1

Emiliano Grillo  66:1

James Hahn  150:1

Austin Cook  150:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tyrrell Hatton  25:1

Adam Scott  33:1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  40:1

Charley Hoffman  100:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.