2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

 

THE OVERVIEW

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hills Golf Course, & Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s “Shore Course”  (Monterey, California) – This week’s PGA event is a three-course format that begins with an enormous field. The first three days, players will cycle through Pebble Beach Golf Links (6,816-yard, par 72), Spyglass Golf Course (6,953-yard, par 72), and Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s “Shore Course” (6,958-yard, par 71). And, after 54-holes, the cut allows only the top 60 players and player/amateur teams to play Pebble on Sunday.

The weather can be a real factor here this week. Although Spyglass is shielded from the ocean winds that can occasionally plague Pebble and Monterey, keep in mind that it generally sees the higher scores when the wind is down.

There’s a lot of history at Pebble. The course has hosted five U.S. Opens (with another coming in 2019) as well as the 1977 PGA Championship. Any time pro golf is played at this course, the A-listers  (and players with a real sense of history) want to show especially well.

Multiple course formats wreak havoc on selecting players’ stats to target. The greens at Pebble are small and hard to hit while those at Spyglass & Monterey are significantly larger. And, the tracks at this week’s pro-am are so short that Driving Accuracy stats are no good since drivers will primarily be staying in the bags (except on par 5s). Taking that into account, the stats that FGWW will be targeting this week are: Scrambling, Par-5 Scoring, and Proximity (50-125).

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 19   Jordan Spieth   (Runner Up:   -15   Kelly Kraft)

2016  – 17   Vaughn Taylor   (Runner Up:   -16   Phil Mickelson)

2015  – 22   Brandt Snedeker   (Runner Up:   -19   Nick Watney)

2014  – 11   Jimmy Walker   (Runners Up:  -10   Dustin Johnson, Jim Renner)

2013  – 19   Brandt Snedeker  (Runner Up:   -17   Chris Kirk)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 2/5/2018)

Dustin Johnson  +600

Jon Rahm  +900

Rory McIlroy  +900

Jason Day  +1100

Jordan Spieth  +1100

Gary Woodland  +2500

Paul Casey  +2800

Phil Mickelson  +2800

Matt Kuchar  +3300

Pat Perez  +3500

Brandt Snedeker  +3500

Branden Grace  +3500

Patrick Reed  +3500

Patrick Cantlay  +4000

Adam Scott  +5000

Chesson Hadley  +4500

Chez Reavie  +5000

Kevin Chappell  +5000

Kevin Kisner  +5000

 

WHO’S HOT

Jon Rahm

Gary Woodland

Chez Reavie

Jason Day

James Hahn

Adam Hadwin

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Brandt Snedeker

Dustin Johnson

Jason Day

Jordan Spieth

Vaughn Taylor

Jimmy Walker

Pat Perez

Nick Watney

 

LONGER SHOTS

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +6600

Shane Lowry  +6600

J.B. Holmes  +6600

Austin Cook  +6600

Beau Hosssler  +6600

Bryson DeChambeau  +6600

Charley Hoffman  +6600

Chris Kirk  +6600

James Hahn  +6600

Bubba Watson  +8000

Graeme McDowell  +8000

Jason Kokrak  +8000

Kevin Streelman  +8000

Nick Watney  +10000

Brandon Harkins  +12500

Nick Taylor  +15000

Scott Stallings  +15000

Brian Stuard  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Jason Day

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

Branden Grace

Graeme McDowell

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Gary Woodland  (25:1).  Woodland’s come-from-behind win last week in Scottsdale was a fantastic boost to his season. His final round 64 launched him 7 spots up the leaderboard and he clinched it in a playoff, just topping a dart-throwing Chez Reavie. Playing three events in the past five weeks, Woodland has tallied a T7 at the Sony, a T12 at the Farmers, and a win at the Phoenix Open. Woodland’s length should serve him well in Monterey this week where he will not be using the driver very much, but will have a lot of chances to attack pins with his wedges. We like Gary carrying his hot play into the peninsula this week.

Pat Perez (35:1) & James Hahn (66:1).   Perez has been absolute fire over the past few months. He won the CIMB last October and since has placed T5 at the CJ Cup, T24 at the HSBC Champions, T3 at the QBE Shootout, and T4 at the Sentry. He has had good results in Monterey in the past, finishing T4 in 205 and T7 in 2014. The ASU grad is playing some of the best golf of his life and he will be comfortable at the event this week. Hahn has been a bit touch and go of late. However, he has made the cut in all seven events he’s played so far in this 2018 season, including a 2nd place finish at the Sony. Hahn looked rather good last week in Phoenix and scored a solid T11. His game fits the course rotation well this week. He has even placed T3 in Monterey, albeit that was in 2013. Look for the Korean-American to bring his A-game this week.

Scott Piercy  (100:1).  Slight bias disclaimer: Piercy blows up the FGWW model for this week. His name appears in every column (one of the few that does).  He ranks near the top in 50-125 proximity from both the fairway and the rough and his scrambling stats are legit. Add to that a T6 in La Jolla two weeks ago and that gives this writer enough to ride the 39-year-old Las Vegan this week.   (Almost took Tom Hoge here at 125:1).

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Jason Day  10:1

Chesson Hadley  50:1

Kevin Kisner  50:1

Beau Hossler  80:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Rory McIlroy  10:1

Pat Perez  33:1

Kevin Kisner  50:1

Chris Kirk  80:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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