2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

 

THE OVERVIEW

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee – TPC Southwind will be a nice test this week for those who choose to play here. The track will play as 7,244-yard par 70 and will feature thick, tough bermuda rough, pristine zoysia fairways, fast, tiny bermuda greens, and bunch of dangerous water in play.

This week we’ll be targeting GIR and Par-4 Scoring as well as current form and course history.

NOTE: U.S. Open Qualifying just wrapped up yesterday and it will be necessary to check this week’s field for any late withdrawals.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -10   Daniel Berger    (Runners Up:   -9   Whee Kim, Charl Schwartzel)

2016  -13   Daniel Berger   (Runners Up:   -10   Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker)

2015  -13   Fabian Gomez   (Runner Up:   -9   Greg Owen)

2014  -10   Ben Crane   (Runner Up:   -9   Troy Merritt)

2013  -12   Harris English   (Runners Up:   -10  Phil Mickelson, Scott Stallings)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 6/4/2018)

Dustin Johnson  +700

Brooks Koepka  +900

Phil Mickelson  +1400

Henrik Stenson  +1600

Adam Scott  +2800

Billy Horschel  +2800

Byeong Hun An  +2800

Charl Schwartzel  +2800

Daniel Berger  +2800

Tony Finau  +2800

Jaoquin Niemann  +3300

Peter Uihlein  +3300

Charles Howell III  +4000

Keegan Bradley  +4000

Steve Stricker  +4000

Luke List  +4000

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +5000

Beau Hossler  +5000

Chez Reavie  +6600

J.B. Holmes  +6600

Jamie Lovemark  +6600

Kevin Chappell  +6600

Russell Knox  +6600

Shane Lowry  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Justin Rose

Dustin Johnson

Aaron Wise

Peter Uihlein

Henrik Stenson

Brooks Koepka

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Daniel Berger

Phil Mickelson

Billy Horschel

Ben Crane

Brooks Koepka

Kevin Chappell

 

LONGER SHOTS

Brandt Snedeker  +8000

Chris Kirk  +8000

Danny Lee  +8000

Harris English  +8000

Keith Mitchell  +8000

Ollie Schniederjans  +8000

Ryan Palmer  +8000

Scott Piercy  +8000

Ben Crane  +8000

Kevin Tway  +10000

Matt Jones  +10000

Patrick Rodgers  +10000

David Lingmerth  +12500

Tom Hoge  +12500

Trey Mullinax  +12500

 

FAITHFULS

Henrik Stenson

Phil Mickelson

Charles Howell III

Keegan Bradley

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Henrik Stenson  (16:1).  I am back on the Stenson train this week at Southwind. On a track where most will be looking at GIR and Par-4 Scoring, there are few names that look as good as Henrik (and Koepka – in this range – is one of them). GIR R10, 1st. GIR R5, 6th. Par-4 Scoring R10, 2nd (behind Koepka). Par-4 Scoring R5, 4th. For the season, the Swede is gaining half a stroke off tee, a full stroke on approach, and close to another half stroke putting. He’s been kind of quiet the past few weeks since a trio of super hot finishes, including a T5 at The Masters. A solid T13 last week at the Memorial. It might just be time for him to have another strong showing. (Koepka matches up just as well and probably will be favored by many, but 9 to 1 isn’t getting me excited. So, I am going to lay my top tier money on Henrik Stenson.) 

Peter Uihlein  (33:1)  & Kiradech Aphibarnrat (50:1).  Peter Uihlein could not be trending any hotter at the moment. Two career best PGA finishes over the past three weeks with a T5 at the Wells Fargo and a solo 5th last week at the Memorial. He’s the only name that appears on the top page of all six model lists GIR, Par-4 Scoring, and Scrambling 5 & 10 rolling events. For just the past 5 rolling weeks he ranks 2nd in SG Field and 5th in SG T2G. I am really enjoying his recent success on the PGA tour and am wagering that his current form will continue. The Barn Rat has also been having an absolutely stellar year and he has been doing it while jumping back and forth across the globe for the better part of the past 9 months. He won the Perth Super 6 in Australia in February and in March finished T5 at the WGC – Mexico and T5 at the World Match Play in Texas. Talk about a jet-set pro. And he does it all with style and poise and precision golf shots. On a course that will heavily favor fairways and greens, and a light-ish field that may grow lighter before tee off on Thursday, I really like the chances of seeing that smiling Thai face on TV this weekend.

Chris Kirk  (80:1).  Kirk barely made the cut last week at The Memorial by parring his final hole in Round 2 after he topped it 76 yards off the tee. Hahaha. And then he shot a Saturday 66. There’s not one single aspect of his game that stands out at the moment, but he is gaining nearly a full stroke tee-to-green. And he’s had a few sporadic, solid finishes over the past couple months, 13th at the Arnold Palmer, T8 at the Valero, and T11 in Fort Worth. This is more of a form play. And for a guy who has shown that he can win on this tour, playing fairly well, and in a light field, I’ll take it at 80 to 1.

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Billy Horschel  28:1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  50:1

Russell Knox  66:1

Steve Wheatcroft  300:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Coming soon.

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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