THE OVERVIEW
The Champion Course at PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida – The PGA moves to the East Coast this week when it shows up in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This part of the country is a bit of a golf mecca where quite a few pros choose to live. And, this event continues the 2018 influx of talent from the European Tour with some new faces gearing up for a run at the Masters in just a few weeks.
The Champion Course at PGA National is a relatively short and challenging track. The narrow fairways, small, fast greens, and swirling winds always make the golf here a test. This week we’ll be favoring SGAPP, SGPutting, Par-4 Scoring, and course history (as there is a lot to draw from).
PAST WINNERS
2017 – 12 Rickie Fowler (Runners Up: -8 Morgan Hoffmann, Gary Woodland)
2016 – 9 Adam Scott (Runners Up: -8 Sergio Garcia)
2015 – 6 Padraig Harrington (Runner Up, Playoff: Daniel Berger)
2014 – 8 Russell Henley (Runners Up, Playoff: Russell Knox, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Palmer)
2013 – 9 Michael Thompson (Runner Up: -7 Geoff Ogilvy)
THE ODDS (Bovada 2/19/2018)
Rickie Fowler +800
Justin Thomas +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000
Sergio Garcia +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +2500
Gary Woodland +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Alex Noren +3000
Brian Harman +3500
Patrick Reed +4000
Russell Knox +4000
Adam Scott +5000
Brandt Snedeker +5000
Byeong Hun An +5000
Chesson Hadley +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Dylan Fritelli +5000
Jason Dufner +5000
Kevin Kisner +5000
Ollie Schniederjans +5000
Patton Kizzire +5000
Rafa Cabrera Bello +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Scott Stallings +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
WHO’S HOT
Chez Reavie
Gary Woodland
Scott Stallings
Alex Noren
Patton Kizzire
HORSES FOR THE COURSE
Sergio Garcia
Rickie Fowler
Tyrrell Hatton
Wesley Bryan
Russell Knox
Adam Scott
Graeme McDowell
LONGER SHOTS
Charles Howell III +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Graeme McDowell +6600
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +6600
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Martin Kaymer +6600
Ryan Moore +6600
Scott Piercy +6600
Thomas Pieters +6600
Austin Cook +8000
Bernd Wiesberger +8000
Bronson Burgoon +8000
Luke List +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Jamie Lovemark +10000
Jhonattan Vegas +10000
Peter Uihlein +10000
Derek Fathauer +20000
Padraig Harrington +20000
Rory Sabbatini +20000
FAITHFULS
Sergio Garcia
Graeme McDowell
Alex Noren
Charles Howell III
Louis Oosthuizen
Martin Kaymer
THE ‘FORE’ SOMES
‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).
KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Gary Woodland (28:1). There’s some serious firepower in the top 5 names this week, but we like Woodland at 28:1 because of his high value and his high ranking in the model for this week. His name appears no worse than 12th in SGAPP, SGPutting, and Par4-Scoring over both the past 5-rolling and 10-rolling week ranges (he’s also first in SGT2G, five rolling). (Thanks to Fantasy Jesus!) The course and conditions this week should lower his GIR percentage a bit, but his strong scrambling stats should serve him well there. Woodland’s (seemingly-come-from-nowhere) win in Scottsdale three weeks ago was one of the great stories of this early 2018 season and, in addition to that, he’s tallied four top 20s since The Shriners last November. Sprinkle in some recent course form, a T2 last year at PGA National, and Woodland appears like a great name at 28:1.
Dylan Fritelli (50:1) & Rafa Cabrera Bello (50:1). Euro Tour players like this event and both of these mid-tier picks reflect that. Dylan Fritelli has been one of the hottest players on the planet over the past four or five months. He had two great finishes at the end of the 2017 season with a T2 at the Turkish Open and a T4 at the World Tour Championship in Dubai. In seven 2018 season events, Fritelli has notched six top 20s, three top 5s, and a win. Over his last 28 rounds he has a scoring average of 68.64 and 11 of those rounds have been 67 or better. There is a new name to add to the always-trusty, South African elites, and he is making an appearance here in Florida this week. In his last 5 PGA starts, Cabrera Bello has made all 5 cuts, including 3 top 25s and 2 top 10s. That doesn’t include a T6 at the Desert Dubai Classic last month or his T2 at the Hong Kong in late November (which was also a short, tough track where the Spainard narrowly missed a putt on the 72nd to force a playoff). If that isn’t enough, his stats for SGT2G and SGAPP are both super solid.
Bud Cauley (80:1). Bud Cauley is a bit of a gut pick this week. So far this season the young man from Daytona Beach has made the cut in 7 of 8 starts (his one miss being the overly rowdy Waste Management Open). In that time he’s racked two top 10s and four top 20s. His T20 finish last week at Riviera was a serious trend in the right direction on a very challenging track. We looked at a lot of names here: Palmer, Burgoon, and Grillo contended while wilder bombs like Lovemark, Horschel, Bryan, and Wise also looked feasible. Ultimately, Cauley seemed like the right play.
JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Sergio Garcia 16:1
Daniel Berger 40:1 **(differing odds come from Will Hill)
Louis Oosthuizen 66:1
Jhonattan Vegas 100:1
GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Tommy Fleetwood 25:1
Tyrrell Hatton 25:1
Dylan Fritelli 50:1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66:1
Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.
