2018 Honda Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Honda Classic

THE OVERVIEW

The Champion Course at PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida – The PGA moves to the East Coast this week when it shows up in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This part of the country is a bit of a golf mecca where quite a few pros choose to live. And, this event continues the 2018 influx of talent from the European Tour with some new faces gearing up for a run at the Masters in just a few weeks.

The Champion Course at PGA National is a relatively short and challenging track. The narrow fairways, small, fast greens, and swirling winds always make the golf here a test. This week we’ll be favoring SGAPP, SGPutting, Par-4 Scoring, and course history (as there is a lot to draw from).

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 12   Rickie Fowler   (Runners Up:   -8   Morgan Hoffmann, Gary Woodland)

2016  – 9   Adam Scott   (Runners Up:   -8   Sergio Garcia)

2015  – 6   Padraig Harrington   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Daniel Berger)

2014  – 8   Russell Henley   (Runners Up, Playoff:   Russell Knox, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Palmer)

2013  – 9   Michael Thompson  (Runner Up:   -7   Geoff Ogilvy)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 2/19/2018)

Rickie Fowler  +800

Justin Thomas  +1000

Rory McIlroy  +1000

Sergio Garcia  +1600

Tyrrell Hatton  +2500

Gary Woodland  +2800

Tommy Fleetwood  +2800

Alex Noren  +3000

Brian Harman  +3500

Patrick Reed  +4000

Russell Knox  +4000

Adam Scott  +5000

Brandt Snedeker  +5000

Byeong Hun An  +5000

Chesson Hadley  +5000

Daniel Berger  +5000

Dylan Fritelli  +5000

Jason Dufner  +5000

Kevin Kisner  +5000

Ollie Schniederjans  +5000

Patton Kizzire  +5000

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +5000

Russell Henley  +5000

Scott Stallings  +5000

Webb Simpson  +5000

 

WHO’S HOT

Chez Reavie

Gary Woodland

Scott Stallings

Alex Noren

Patton Kizzire

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Sergio Garcia

Rickie Fowler

Tyrrell Hatton

Wesley Bryan

Russell Knox

Adam Scott

Graeme McDowell

 

LONGER SHOTS

Charles Howell III  +6600

Chris Kirk  +6600

Graeme McDowell  +6600

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +6600

Louis Oosthuizen  +6600

Martin Kaymer  +6600

Ryan Moore  +6600

Scott Piercy  +6600

Thomas Pieters  +6600

Austin Cook  +8000

Bernd Wiesberger  +8000

Bronson Burgoon  +8000

Luke List  +8000

Ryan Palmer  +8000

Jamie Lovemark  +10000

Jhonattan Vegas  +10000

Peter Uihlein  +10000

Derek Fathauer  +20000

Padraig Harrington  +20000

Rory Sabbatini  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Sergio Garcia

Graeme McDowell

Alex Noren

Charles Howell III

Louis Oosthuizen

Martin Kaymer

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Gary Woodland  (28:1). There’s some serious firepower in the top 5 names this week, but we like Woodland at 28:1 because of his high value and his high ranking in the model for this week. His name appears no worse than 12th in SGAPP, SGPutting, and Par4-Scoring over both the past 5-rolling and 10-rolling week ranges (he’s also first in SGT2G, five rolling). (Thanks to Fantasy Jesus!) The course and conditions this week should lower his GIR percentage a bit, but his strong scrambling stats should serve him well there. Woodland’s (seemingly-come-from-nowhere) win in Scottsdale three weeks ago was one of the great stories of this early 2018 season and, in addition to that, he’s tallied four top 20s since The Shriners last November. Sprinkle in some recent course form, a T2 last year at PGA National, and Woodland appears like a great name at 28:1.

Dylan Fritelli  (50:1) & Rafa Cabrera Bello  (50:1).  Euro Tour players like this event and both of these mid-tier picks reflect that. Dylan Fritelli has been one of the hottest players on the planet over the past four or five months. He had two great finishes at the end of the 2017 season with a T2 at the Turkish Open and a T4 at the World Tour Championship in Dubai. In seven 2018 season events, Fritelli has notched six top 20s, three top 5s, and a win. Over his last 28 rounds he has a scoring average of 68.64 and 11 of those rounds have been 67 or better. There is a new name to add to the always-trusty, South African elites, and he is making an appearance here in Florida this week. In his last 5 PGA starts, Cabrera Bello has made all 5 cuts, including 3 top 25s and 2 top 10s. That doesn’t include a T6 at the Desert Dubai Classic last month or his T2 at the Hong Kong in late November (which was also a short, tough track where the Spainard narrowly missed a putt on the 72nd to force a playoff). If that isn’t enough, his stats for SGT2G and SGAPP are both super solid.

Bud Cauley  (80:1).  Bud Cauley is a bit of a gut pick this week. So far this season the young man from Daytona Beach has made the cut in 7 of 8 starts (his one miss being the overly rowdy Waste Management Open). In that time he’s racked two top 10s and four top 20s. His T20 finish last week at Riviera was a serious trend in the right direction on a very challenging track. We looked at a lot of names here: Palmer, Burgoon, and Grillo contended while wilder bombs like Lovemark, Horschel, Bryan, and Wise also looked feasible. Ultimately, Cauley seemed like the right play.

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Sergio Garcia  16:1

Daniel Berger  40:1       **(differing odds come from Will Hill)

Louis Oosthuizen  66:1

Jhonattan Vegas  100:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tommy Fleetwood  25:1

Tyrrell Hatton  25:1

Dylan Fritelli  50:1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  66:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.