2018 Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Houston Open

 

THE OVERVIEW

The Golf Club of Houston, Humble, Texas – The Houston Open is generally designed to be a precursor for The Masters. As such, the course will be set up to be a bit of a test. Like years past, winning scores will be quite low; however, there will be some players carding higher rounds as well.

The Golf Club of Houston will play as a 7,457-yard, par 72 this week. It will feature narrow fairways, tall rough, areas thick with native grasses, and a fair amount of water. The wind will also come into play, so be sure to look at the forecast and tee times when selecting players.

For our model, we’ll be favoring Driving Accuracy, Proximity in the 150-200 range, Strokes Gained Putting, and current form/course history.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 20   Russell Henley   (Runner Up:   -17   Sung-Hoon Kang)

2016  -15   Jim Herman   (Runner Up:   -14   Henrik Stenson)

2015  -16   J.B. Holmes   (Runners Up, Playoff:   Jordan Spieth & Johnson Wagner)

2014  -15   Matt Jones   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Matt Kuchar)

 

THE ODDS    (Bovada 3/26/2018)

Justin Rose  +1000

Rickie Fowler  +1000

Henrik Stenson  +1200

Jordan Spieth  +1200

Phil Mickelson  +1200

Daniel Berger  +2500

Luke List  +2500

Tony Finau  +2800

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +3000

Matt Kuchar  +3300

Russell Henley  +3300

Byeong-Hun An  +4000

Steve Stricker  +4000

Jason Dufner  +4500

Charles Howell III  +5000

Thomas Pieters  +5000

Keegan Bradley  +5000

Emiliano Grillo  +6000

Jamie Lovemark  +6000

Bill Haas  +6600

Shubhankar Sharma  +6600

Brandt Snedeker  +6600

Chez Reavie  +6600

 

WHO’S HOT

Phil Mickelson

Justin Rose

Luke List

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Kelly Kraft

Shubhankar Sharma

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Russell Henley

Daniel Berger

Henrik Stenson

J.B. Holmes

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Bud Cauley

Matt Kuchar

 

LONGER SHOTS

Chris Kirk  +7000

Jason Kokrak  +7000

J.B. Holmes  +7000

Bud Cauley  +8000

Harris English  +8000

Ian Poulter  +8000

James Hahn  +8000

Jhonatttan Vegas  +8000

Kelly Kraft  +8000

Patrick Rodgers  +8000

Paul Dunne  +8000

Russell Knox  +8000

Ryan Palmer  +8000

Scott Piercy  +8000

Brice Garnett  +10000

Lucas Glover  +10000

Martin Kaymer  +10000

Rory Sabbatini  +1000

Sean O’Hair  +10000

Seung-Su Han  +10000

Brandon Harkins  +12500

Chesson Hadley  +12500

Corey Conners  +12500

Peter Uihlein  +12500

Scott Stallings  +12500

Seamus Power  +15000

Tom Lovelady  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Phil Mickelson

Matt Kuchar

Charles Howell III

Bill Haas

Martin Kaymer

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Rafa Cabrera Bello  (30:1).  This selection really came down to either Mickelson or Bello for me. In the end, I decided to take the extra value. Bello has had a very solid year so far. He was playing his best golf back at the end of last calendar year when he very nearly won the Hong Kong Open, finished T5 at the WGC-HSBC, and tallied T10 and T11 at the CIMB and CJ Cup. He showed a bit of a return to that elite form with his T3 in Mexico two weeks ago. On a course that will require a little restraint and solid accuracy, Bello fits the mark. Bello is also currently enjoying a hot streak with putter and ranks in the top 10 in SG-Putting over the past five events. I expect the tall, svelt Spaniard to have a good showing this week.

Russell Henley (33:1) & Keegan Bradley (40:1).  Russell Henley is earning this spot almost solely on his course history in Houston. (Side Note: There’s been a lot of debate about the validity of Course History as a metric in the DFS/Fantasy sphere recently, and although I don’t have any real strong opinions on the topic, it has often served me well. Additionally, when I have opted to ignore it, it has cost me more than once.) Over the past four years at The Golf Club of Houston, Henley has finished 1st, T5, 4th, & T7. His current form is less-than-stellar, but he does rank well for Proximity 175-200, so that coupled with being on a course that you know he will feel good on, is enough for me. Bradley has somewhat quietly been playing some good golf this year, having netted three top 5s early in the season. His tee-to-green game is super solid (for 2018 he gains half a stroke off the tee and a full stroke on approach). Bradley also ranks well for proximity in the 150-175 range and has had some quality finishes in Houston.

Brice Garnett (100:1).  How can I not take the hot hand that just won wire-to-wire (and by by four strokes!) last week in the Dominican Republic. The 34-year-old from Missouri Western State University tallied two Web.com wins in 2017, and although he hasn’t finished real well in a full-strength field in a PGA event recently, he did finish T7 here in Houston in 2014. That tells me that the hot hand is familiar with this course. Love it. Book it. (Kelly Kraft and Seung-Su Han will also be getting some play from me this week).

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Luke List  25:1

Ian Poulter  80:1

Dylan Fritelli  55:1

Brandon Harkins  125:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Rafa Cabrera Bello  25:1

Keegan Bradley  50:1

Byeoung Hun An  40:1

Jhonattan Vegas  100:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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