THE OVERVIEW

TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois - This week the PGA is going to the TPC Deere Run, a parkland track set above the Rock River on the Illinois/Iowa border. The John Deere Classic has been held at Deere Run since 2000 and it is one of the easier courses the pros will see all year. The John Deere is also unfortunately scheduled the week before The Open Championship which this year is being held at Carnoustie Golf Links in Carnoustie, Scotland. So, many of the bigger name pros are missing from this event in preparation for the third major of the year.

This week TPC Deere Run will play as a 7,268-yard, par 71. It features generous, hard-rolling fairways and receptive, bentgrass/poa greens. Players will be able to open it up off the tee and dial in their approaches from an average range of 150 yards out. It will be a contest to see who can go the super lowest.

For our model this week, we'll be looking at SG:Approach, Proximity 150-175, Birdie Average, and course history/current form.

PAST WINNERS

2017  -18   Bryson DeChambeau    (Runner Up:   -17   Patrick Rodgers)

2016    -22   Ryan Moore   (Runner Up:   -20   Ben Martin)

2015  -20   Jordan Spieth    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Tom Gillis)

2014  -22   Brian Harman    (Runner Up:   -21   Zach Johnson)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 7/9/2018)

Bryson DeChambeau +1000

Francesco Molinari +1000

Zach Johnson +1200

Joaquin Niemann +1600

Ryan Moore +1800

Steve Stricker +2000

Kyle Stanley +2200

Brandt Snedeker +2200

Chesson Hadley +3000

Austin Cook +4000

Chris Kirk +4500

Wesley Bryan +4500

Andrew Landry +5000

David Lingmerth +5000

Danny Lee +5500

Kevin Streelman +6000

Kevin Tway +6000

Patrick Rodgers +6000

Brian Gay +6000

Sung Kang +6000

Scott Piercy +6000

C.T. Pan +6600

Aaron Wise +6600

Kelly Kraft +6600

Johnson Wagner +6600

Keith Mitchell +7000

Ryan Blaum +7000

Nick Watney +7000

Chez Reavie +7000

Andrew Putnam +7000

Si Woo Kim +7000

 

HOT PLAYERS

Francesco Molinari

Bryson DeChambeau

Brian Gay

Joaquin Niemann

Ryan Moore

Kyle Stanley

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Zach Johnson

Brandt Snedeker

Ryan Moore

Bryson DeChambeau

 

LONGER SHOTS

Scott Stallings +8000

Joel Dahmen +8000

J.T. Poston +9000

Bill Haas +9000

Bronson Burgoon +9000

Ryan Palmer +9000

Tyler Duncan +9000

Abraham Ancer +10000

Alex Cejka +10000

Harold Varner III +10000

David Hearn +11000

Rory Sabbatini +11000

Matt Jones +11000

Brandon Harkins +11000

Sam Saunders +11000

Seamus Power +11000

Scott Brown +12500

Trey Mullinax +12500

Whee Kim +12500

Troy Merritt +12500

Ben Crane +12500

Chad Campbell +12500

Corey Conners +12500

Robert Streb +12500

Richy Werenski +12500

Andres Romero +15000

Zac Blair +15000

Chris Stroud +15000

Fabian Gomez +15000

Harris English +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Francesco Molinari

Bryson DeChambeau

Zach Johnson

Steve Stricker

Kyle Stanley

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Francesco Molinari (10:1).  Yeah, we'll take the chalk (and we won't even feel bad about it). Francesco has been white hot lately and in a lighter field?!? He won the BMW PGA Championship, finished 2nd the following week in the Italian Open, finished T25 at the U.S. Open, and then won the Quicken Loans National. Is there a hotter golfer in the world right now? His tee game is as good as anyone's, his irons are straight darts, and he putts like a demon. I feel sorry for this field. I really do.

Chris Kirk  (55:1)  &  Brian Gay  (60:1).  For the past 5 rolling events, Francesco Molinari is gaining more strokes against the field than anyone. The next name on that list is Chris Kirk. Over that same time period, Kirk is 7th in SG:App, 6th in Ball Striking, and 5th in SG:Putting. Additionally, Kirk is hitting 83% of greens and ranks 7th in proximity. And even all this aside, he's a proven pro winner in a light field. We'll take it. 

Brian Gay has been on a tear lately. Another proven pro in a light field and at a great number. I'm loving that stiff brim hat he's been rocking. And I dig that he's 7th in SG:Field and 18th in Birdie or Better Average over the past 5 events.

Joel Dahmen (80:1).  There really isn't anyone near this number that can compete with Dahmen's T2G game at the moment. For that reason, he gets the nod.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Joaquin Niemann  16:1

Chris Kirk  55:1

Andrew Putnam  70:1

Norman Xiong  350:1

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Wesley Bryan  33:1

Scott Stallings  66:1

Kelly Kraft  66:1

Johnson Wagner  66:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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