Golf Picks for the 2018 Northern Trust Open

THE OVERVIEW

Ridgewood Country Club, Paramus, New Jersey  - The first round of the Fed Ex Playoffs commences in New Jersey at the Ridgewood Country Club this week. 125 players start the week and only the top 100 will continue onto Boston.

The course this week is a composite of the 27 holes at Ridgewood and will play as a 7,385-yard, par 71. It is among the oldest courses in the United States and was designed by famed Baltusrol, Bethpage Black, and Winged Foot course architect, Albert Warren Tillinghast.

The layout features tree-lined fairways, tough rough, a few short par 4s, a few long par 5s, small, well-guarded greens, and enough variation to force players to shape shots both left to right and right to left.

Length off the tee should be a significant advantage at Ridgewood, so we'll be targeting Driving Distance, GIR, and SG:Putting when making selections this week. Ball Striking and Par-5 Scoring could also be relevant stats (and Firestone is often cited as a correlation course) for those who want to dig deeper into the numbers for the first week of the playoffs.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -13   Dustin Johnson    (Runner Up, Playoff:    Jordan Spieth)   @Glen Oaks Club

2016   -9   Patrick Reed   (Runners Up:   -8   Emiliano Grillo, Sean O'Hair)   @Bethpage, Black 

2015  -19   Jason Day    (Runner Up:   -13   Henrik Stenson)   @Plainfield Country Club

2014  -14   Hunter Mahan    (Runners Up:   -12   Stuart Appleby, Jason Day, Cameron Tringale)  @Ridgewood Country Club

2013  -11   Adam Scott    (Runners Up:   -10   Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Tiger Woods)   @Liberty National Golf Club

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 8/20/2018)

Dustin Johnson   +900

Justin Thomas   +1200

Brooks Koepka   +1200

Jason Day   +1200

Tiger Woods   +1600

Justin Rose   +2000

Jon Rahm   +2000

Jordan Spieth   +2000

Francesco Molinari   +2200

Tommy Fleetwood   +2800

Webb Simpson   +3500

Adam Scott   +4000

Brandt Snedeker   +4000

Hideki Matsuyama   +4000

Patrick Cantlay   +4000

Matt Kuchar   +5000

Henrik Stenson   +5000

Patrick Reed   +5000

Paul Casey   +5000

Tony Finau   +5000

Zach Johnson   +6600

Marc Leishman   +6600

Xander Schauffele   +6600

Alex Noren   +6600

Billy Horschel   +6600

Bubba Watson   +6600

Gary Woodland   +6600

Ian Poulter   +6600

Kevin Na   +6600

Louis Oosthuizen   +6600

Rafael Cabrera Bello   +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Brandt Snedeker

Webb Simpson

Brooks Koepka

Justin Thomas

Francesco Molinari

Tiger Woods

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Jason Day

Matt Kuchar

Adam Scott

Hunter Mahan

Zach Johnson

Brian Gay

 

LONGER SHOTS

Tyrrell Hatton   +8000

Kevin Kisner   +8000

Branden Grace   +8000

Bryson DeChambeau   +8000

Kyle Stanley   +8000

Phil Mickelson   +8000

Ryan Moore   +10000

Stewart Cink   +10000

Byeong Hun An   +10000

Charl Schwartzel   +10000

Chris Kirk   +10000

Daniel Berger   +10000

Keegan Bradley   +10000

Russell Knox   +10000

Aaron Wise   +12500

C T Pan   +12500

Charley Hoffman   +12500

Danny Lee   +12500

Emiliano Grillo   +12500

Jason Dufner   +12500

Jason Kokrak   +12500

Jimmy Walker   +12500

Joel Dahmen   +12500

Kevin Chappell   +12500

Luke List   +12500

Martin Laird   +12500

Pat Perez   +12500

Russell Henley   +12500

Abraham Ancer   +15000

Andrew Putnam   +15000

Austin Cook   +15000

Beau Hossler   +15000

Brendan Steele   +15000

Brian Gay   +15000

Charles Howell III   +15000

Chesson Hadley   +15000

Harold Varner III   +15000

J B Holmes   +15000

J J Spaun   +15000

Jamie Lovemark   +15000

Kevin Streelman   +15000

Kevin Tway   +15000

Ryan Armour   +15000

Brian Harman   +17500

Cameron Smith   +17500

Ollie Schniederjans   +17500

Peter Uihlein   +17500

Adam Hadwin   +20000

Anirban Lahiri   +20000

Chez Reavie   +20000

Keith Mitchell   +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Francesco Molinari

Brooks Koepka

Jason Day

Zach Johnson

Tiger Woods

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Jon Rahm  (20:1).  Jon Rahm fits this week's model very nicely. And he falls right in the center value-wise. This also seems like perfect timing for the young Spaniard to put a big stamp on an already excellent tour season.

Hideki Matsuyama (40:1)  &  Adam Scott  (40:1).  Tough to fade Cantlay here, but Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott are both in excellent form at the moment. They are also both much lower than they would like to be in the rankings and that could be a real motivating factor. I will be looking for them to bring their serious "A games" this week. 

Brian Gay (150:1).  Brian Gay is just too fire not to take here. Stewart Cink, Aaron Wise, or even Keith Mitchell could also be good plays, but I am taking the hottest hand in this range (Cink is arguably just as hot at the moment, too).

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

n/a

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Justin Thomas  14:1

Gary Woodland  50:1

Ian Poulter  66:1

Bryson DeChambeau  80:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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