THE OVERVIEW

Bellerive Country Club, Town and Country, Missouri - The tour arrives in Town and Country, Missouri this week for the final major of the year. Bellerive Country Club isn't often visited by the tour, but it has been the site of some notable events in the past. Gary Player won the 1965 U.S. Open at Bellerive, Nick Price won the 1992 PGA Championship on this course, and Camillo Villegas won the 2005 BMW Championship here. It has been noted by other pundits that not a single American name is on that list of past winners.

This week Bellerive will play as a 7,317 yard par 70. By most accounts the set up will be conducive to a bomb and gouge approach. So, the bigger hitters will have some advantage. However, the farther a player wants to play off the tee, the more trouble will come into play. And many experts have suggested that accuracy and approach should be favored over strictly lengthy hitters.

The course features a rare Zoysia mix in the fairways, which will have 25-to-30-yard-wide landing areas, tall and nasty-nasty-nasty fescue rough, and massive bentgrass green complexes (averaging 7500 square feet in area) which have been burned out around the edges by the heat and lack of moisture this summer.

We'll be looking at some Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, and Proximity numbers stats wise, but for picks this week, it being the last major of the year and all, we'll mostly be going with our overall gut feels.

PAST WINNERS

2017  -8   Justin Thomas    (Runners Up:   -6   Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed)  @ Quail Hollow Club

2016    -14   Jimmy Walker   (Runner Up:   -13   Jason Day)  @ Baltusrol Golf Club

2015  -20   Jason Day    (Runner Up:   -17   Jordan Spieth)  @Whistling Straights

2014  -16   Rory McIlroy    (Runner Up:   -15   Phil Mickelson)  @ Valhalla Golf Club

2013  -10   Jason Dufner    (Runner Up:   -8   Jim Furyk)  @  Oak Hill Country Club

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 8/6/2018)

Dustin Johnson  +800

Rory McIlroy  +1200

Jordan Spieth  +2000

Brooks Koepka  +2000

Jason Day  +2000

Rickie Fowler  +2200

Justin Rose  +2200

Jon Rahm  +2500

Tiger Woods  +2800

Tommy Fleetwood  +2800

Francesco Molinari  +3300

Patrick Reed  +3500

Tony Finau  +4000

Alex Noren  +5000

Henrik Stenson  +5000

Patrick Cantlay  +5000

Paul Casey  +5000

Xander Schauffele  +5000

Bubba Watson  +5000

Hideki Matsuyama  +6600

Marc Leishman  +6600

Joaquin Niemann   +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Justin Thomas

Justin Rose

Dustin Johnson

Francesco Molinari

Thorbjorn Olesen

Rory McIlroy

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

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LONGER SHOTS

Webb Simpson  +7500

Thorbjorn  +7500

Bryson DeChambeau  +8000

Louis Oosthuizen  +8000

Matt Kuchar  +8000

Kyle Stanley  +80000

Phil Mickelson  +10000

Sergio Garcia  +10000

Branden Grace  +10000

Charley Hoffman  +10000

Ian Poulter  +10000

Kevin Kisner  +10000

Zach Johnson  +10000

Brian Harman  +10000

Daniel Berger  +10000

Keegan Bradley  +10000

Matthew Fitzpatrick +15000

Russell Knox  +15000

Adam Scott  +15000

Byeong Hun An  +12500

Kevin Chappell  +12500

Luke List  +12500

Aaron Wise  +12500

Beau Hossler  +15000

Brandt Snedeker  +15000

Charl Schwartzel  +15000

Si Woo Kim  +15000

Emiliano Grillo  +15000

Ryan Moore  +15000

Tyrrell Hatton  +15000

Russell Henley  +15000

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +15000

Shane Lowry  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Francesco Molinari

Brooks Koepka

Patrick Reed

Rickie Fowler

Marc Leishman

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Brooks Koepka  (20:1).  After auto-fading the first four names mostly due to unattractive value, we are taking Brooks Koepka. Brooks is in solid current form and has all of the abilities to dominate a course set up like he will see this week. We also like Jason Day and Jon Rahm, but not quite as much as Koepka. It's a tall order for anyone to win two majors in a single season, but we really like Koepka's chances.

Tony Finau  (40:1)  &  Xander Schauffele  (60:1).  Both Finau and Schauffele have the game to contend at Bellerive. And, they both, now, have enough experience. Finau has contended in majors before and like Brooks and Xander, should find this track very suitable to how he prefers to get around a golf course. We love Finau this week. Schauffele very nearly won the Open Championship just a few weeks ago. He had plenty of chances coming down the stretch and it just wasn't meant to be for him. However, that experience will be vital to the next time he finds himself in contention in a major, and that very well could be this week. 

Bryson DeChambeau  (80:1).  We also love Bryson (and especially the 80:1 number!) this week. Bryson probably still doesn't have the adequate amount of PGA experience to win an event as big as this yet, but he most certainly has the ability. He is going to win a major at some point in his career, could it be this soon?  Some other names in the long odds range to take a look at and consider for a T10 wager or other: Kyle Stanley 80:1, Beau Hossler  150:1, Thomas Pieters  150:1, and Ollie Schniederjans  300:1. 

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

n/a

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Tony Finau  33:1

Patrick Cantlay  50:1

Bryson DeChamnbeau  66:1

Anirban Lahiri  200:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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