THE OVERVIEW

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Potomac, Maryland - A smaller PGA field moves down the coast for this week's event at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm. The course this week, if it's anything like last year's set up, will be really challenging for the players and play as a 7,107-yard par 71. There's water in play on eight holes, nasty rough (that will be nearly impossible to hit longer irons out of), and hard, fast greens.

Accuracy off the tee will be at a premium this week. For our model, we focused on overall SG: Field, Ball Sriking, and SG: Par 4s when selecting our players this week. And when it came down to tie-breaking, Proximity +200 Yards Statistics were the deciding factor.

 

PAST WINNERS

*Only one year recent history at TPC Potomac

2017  -7   Kyle Stanley    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Charles Howell III)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 6/26/2018)

Rickie Fowler +650

Tiger Woods +1300

Marc Leishman +1800

Kyle Stanley +2200

Francesco Molinari +2200

Charles Howell III +2800

J.B. Holmes +2800

Jimmy Walker +3000

Beau Hossler +3000

Kiradech Aphibarnrat +3500

Kevin Na +3500

Joaquin Niemann +4000

Patrick Rodgers +4000

Byeong Hun An +4000

Billy Horschel +4500

Stewart Cink +4500

Jamie Lovemark +4500

Kevin Streelman +4500

Si Woo Kim +5000

Chesson Hadley +5000

Gary Woodland +5000

Danny Lee +5000

David Lingmerth +5000

Andrew Putnam +5500

Kevin Tway +6000

Brian Gay +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

J.B. Holmes

Andrew Putnam

Rickie Fowler

Joaquin Niemann

Francesco Molinari

Kyle Stanley

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

*Based on only 2017 results

Kyle Stanley

Charles Howell III

Rickie Fowler

Martin Laird

Keegan Bradley

 

LONGER SHOTS

Bill Haas +7000

Anirban Lahiri +7000

Adam Hadwin +7000

C.T. Pan +7500

Martin Laird +7500

Nick Watney +8000

Keith Mitchell +9000

Matt Jones +10000

J.T. Poston +10000

James Hahn +10000

Rory Sabbatini +10000

Ryan Blaum +10000

Ollie Schniederjans +11000

Richy Werenski +11000

Trey Mullinax +11000

Harris English +11000

Johnson Wagner +11000

Jason Kokrak +12500

Troy Merritt +12500

Tyler Duncan +12500

Seamus Power +12500

Ryan Palmer +12500

Ryan Armour +12500

Andrew Landry +12500

Ben Crane +12500

Ben Martin +12500

Peter Malnati +14000

Scott Stallings +14000

Tom Hoge +14000

J.J. Spaun +14000

Joel Dahmen +15000

John Huh +15000

Vaughn Taylor +15000

Sung Kang +15000

Sam Ryder +15000

Sam Saunders +15000

Zac Blair +15000

Cody Gribble +15000

Corey Conners +15000

Fabian Gomez +15000

Aaron Baddeley +15000

Alex Cejka +16000

Michael Kim +16000

Nate Lashley +16000

 

FAITHFULS

Francesco Molinari

Charles Howell III

Jimmy Walker

Stewart Cink

Martin Laird

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Francesco Molinari  (20:1).  After fading Rickie at six and a half to one, the first name that really jumps is Francesco Molinari. Molinari has been super hot on the Euro side of golf for the past month. He won the BMW Championship, placed 2nd at The Italian Open, and was named the European Tour's Player of the Month for May. He is a tee-to-green machine and can get laser hot with his long irons. TPC Avenel may set up nicely for him. Add to that the lighter field, and his chances improve even further. We'll be looking for the Italian to have a solid week.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  (33:1)  & Gary Woodland  (40:1).  I absolutely love the Barn Rat at Avenel this week. Over the past 10 and 5 rolling events he ranks very well in SG: Field, Ball Striking, and Par-4 Scoring. He is super solid off the tee, can get hot with the putter, and doesn't easily get rattled. In this lighter field, and on a tougher-than-average track where accurate driving is at a premium, this could be one of Barn Rat's best chances at contending for a title on the PGA Tour this season. Gary Woodland has been relatively quiet since his season-defining win in Scottsdale. However, he absolutely dominates our model for this week; he ranks 7th in SG: Field over the past 5 weeks, second and first in Ball Striking over the past 10 and 5 rolling events, and third in Par-4 Scoring the over the past 5. Gary is trending seriously upward and could be high on leaderboard come Sunday (he'll just have to keep his tee balls in the short cut).

Corey Conners  (125:1).  Hard to find a name to really nail down in this range this week. There's a bunch of great talent scattered all over between 80 and 150 odds-wise. Conners is the name we're going with simply because he looks the best in the model (and we're all about trusting the process). However, there are at least six other names that we'd feel just as confident with (Matt Jones, Troy Merritt, and Peter Malnati to name a few).

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Francesco Molinari  22:1

Andrew Putnam  50:1

Anirban Lahiri  75:1

Tyler Duncan  125:1

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Beau Hossler  28:1

Chesson Hadley  40:1

Si Woo Kim  50:1

Richie Werenski  100:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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