2018 The Players Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Players Championship

THE OVERVIEW

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida – TPC Sawgrass is a legendary Pete Dye track probably most famous for its 17th hole, a short (but epic) par 3 with an island green. This week, the course will play as a 7,189 yard, par 72, and it features a number of holes with significant doglegs, tough rough, a fair amount of water, and small Bermuda greens that are well-guarded by link-style bunkers.

The Players Championship is often referred to as the fifth major, and the past winners list reads as such (with the exception of 2017 winner, Si Woo Kim). Historically, those who finish well have played the event multiple times. Course knowledge, and subsequent smart shot selection, seems to go a long way.

Players will need to be accurate with their approaches and know when to leave the driver in the bag on a number of boxes in order to have success here this week.

The purse this week is rather large, so keep that in mind when selecting OAD picks.  When selecting players this week, we’ll be looking at a little course history, current form, Ball Striking, and Scrambling.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -10   Si Woo Kim    (Runners Up:   -7   Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter)

2016  -15   Jason Day   (Runner Up:   -11   Kevin Chappell)

2015  -12   Rickie Fowler   (Runners Up, Playoff:   Sergio Garcia, Kevin Kisner)

2014  -13   Martin Kaymer   (Runner Up:   -12   Jim Furyk)

2013  -13   Tiger Woods   (Runners Up:   -11   David Lingmerth, Jeff Maggert, Kevin Streelman)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 5/7/2018)

Rose/Stenson +650

Rory McIlroy +1400

Jason Day +1400

Justin Thomas +1400

Jordan Spieth +1400

Dustin Johnson +1600

Rickie Fowler +2000

Jon Rahm +2200

Justin Rose +2800

Sergio Garcia +2800

Henrik Stenson +2800

Hideki Matsuyama +3300

Patrick Reed +3300

Paul Casey +3300

Phil Mickelson +3300

Tiger Woods +4000

Tommy Fleetwood +4000

Alex Noren +5000

Bryson DeChambeau +5000

Bubba Watson +5000

Daniel Berger +5000

Kevin Kisner +5000

Marc Leishman  +5000

Brooks Koepka  +6000

 

WHO’S HOT

Patrick Reed

Bryson DeChambeau

Rory McIroy

Henrik Stenson

Chesson Hadley

Billy Horschel

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Sergio Garcia

Francesco Molinari

Si Woo Kim

Hideki Matsuyama

Tiger Woods

Rory McIlroy

 

LONGER SHOTS

Matt Kuchar +6600

Francesco Molinari +6600

Cameron Smith +6600

Ian Poulter +6600

Louis Oosthuizen +6600

Adam Scott +6600

Brian Harman +6600

Patrick Cantlay +6600

Rafael Cabrera Bello +6600

Tyrrell Hatton +6600

Tony Finau +6600

Emiliano Grillo +6600

Billy Horschel +8000

Branden Grace +8000

Brandt Snedeker +8000

Chesson Hadley +8000

Luke List +8000

Webb Simpson +8000

Xander Schauffele +8000

Zach Johnson +8000

Kevin Chappell +9000

Kyle Stanley +9000

Brendan Steele +10000

Byeong Hun An +10000

Charley Hoffman +10000

Jimmy Walker +10000

Kevin Na +10000

Pat Perez +10000

Russell Henley +10000

Ryan Moore +10000

Sean OHair +10000

Si Woo Kim +10000

Adam Hadwin +10000

Charl Schwartzel +10000

Jason Dufner +10000

Matthew Fitzpatrick +12500

Chris Kirk +12500

Gary Woodland +12500

J.B. Holmes +12500

Kiradech Aphibarnrat +12500

Martin Kaymer +12500

Martin Laird +12500

Nick Watney +12500

Ollie Schniederjans +12500

Shane Lowry +12500

Steve Stricker +12500

Beau Hossler +14000

Kevin Streelman +14000

Bill Haas +15000

Bud Cauley +15000

Charles Howell III +15000

Grayson Murray +15000

Hao Tong Li +15000

Jamie Lovemark +15000

Keegan Bradley +15000

Ross Fisher +15000

Satoshi Kodaira +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Matt Kuchar

Sergio Garcia

Henrik Stenson

Louis Oosthuizen

Rafa Cabrera Bello

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Henrik Stenson  (28:1).  The smooth Swede is hot right now, finishing 5th, 6th, and 4th in his last three starts (which includes a great Masters finish). Over the past 10 events Stenson is tops in Ball Striking and also ranks in the top 5 in both GIR and Scrambling. So, even when he misses some of these smaller, harder greens, he’s able to not lose ground.  This is an event he has won before, albeit way back in 2009. But he knows the course and is playing lights out golf right now. Smart off the tee. Sharp with his irons. And a solid short game. I’ll take it.

Bryson DeChambeau  (50:1)  & Ian Poulter  (66:1).  Bryson DeChambeau tailored his approach to the game from analyzing swing robots and to some degree he has become one. The young pro has been automatic lately logging two top 5s in his last three starts. Over the last ten events, Bryson is 3rd in Ball Striking and 6th in putting. Sawgrass should be a course that sets up well for the kid from Southern Methodist University, but he’ll need to limit his mistakes. The only cause for pause here is it’s his first time playing Sawgrass in a PGA event. History implies that that is not quite the right recipe for a solid finish here, but history is no match for an automatic golf swing. Ian Poulter is enjoying something of a renaissance of late. He’s notched a super gritty win (to punch his own ticket to The Masters) and two top 10s in his past four starts and finished runner up at The Players last year, 3 strokes behind winner Si Woo Kim. Poulter has played in this event for at least the last 12 years straight and has only two missed cuts in that stretch. He ranks well in ST T2G, Ball Striking, and Proxmity. I like the experience. I like the current form. Give me the wily Englishman.

Zach Johnson  (80:1).  ZJ this week is a pure veteran play for me. Like Poulter, Zach Johnson has played this event at least the last 12 years straight but Zach has only missed the cut once in that time. It seems the tougher the event, and the bigger the prize, the more Zach Johnson seems to show up. There’s a lot of other names here to like, but I’ll take ZJ.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Jon Rahm  25:1

Francesco Molinari  66:1

Ian Poulter  66:1

Jimmy Walker  150:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Henrik Stenson  28:1

Bryson DeChambeau  50:1

Cameron Smith  66:1

Alexander Levy  200:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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