THE OVERVIEW

TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Connecticut - The PGA Tour is going to Cromwell, Connecticut this week following a brutal event for the players who completed the weekend at the U.S. Open on a very tough course. The TPC River Highlands is playing as a 6,841-yard par 70 this week. For reference, that is 600 yards less (and the same total par) as Shinnecock played last weekend.

A Pete Dye design, TPC River Highlands is one of the shortest courses the tour will play all year. It is a parkland-style track with tree-lined fairways  It can be advantageous for bombers, but past winners suggest that average-length players who are on their game have just as a good of a chance at winning.

Holes 15-17 traverse around a huge lake and can make the end of rounds at TPC River Highlands quite exciting.

For players picks this week, we will paying attention to those names that could be absolutely spent after that grueling weekend at the Open, course history, current form, Par-4 Scoring, and SG: T2G.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -12   Jordan Spieth    (Runner Up, Playoff:   Daniel Berger)

2016  -14   Russell Knox   (Runner Up:   -13   Jerry Kelly)

2015  -16   Bubba Watson   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Paul Casey)

2014  -15   Kevin Streelman   (Runners Up:   -14   K.J. Choi, Sergio Garcia)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 6/18/2018)

Dustin Johnson  +900

Brooks Koepka  +1200

Jordan Spieth  +1200

Justin Thomas  +1200

Rory McIlroy  +1200

Patrick Reed  +1600

Jason Day  +1800

Paul Casey  +1800

Bryson DeChambeau  +2500

Webb Simpson  +2500

Bubba Watson  +2800

Marc Leishman  +2800

Daniel Berger  +3300

Louis Oosthuizen  +3300

Ryan Moore  +3300

Charley Hoffman  +4000

Patrick Cantlay  +4000

Xander Schauffele  +4000

Billy Horschel  +5000

Brandt Snedeker  +5000

Brian Harman  +5000

Zach Johnson  +5000

Russell Knox  +5000

Emiliano Grillo  +5000

Keegan Bradley  +6600

Kyle Stanley  +6600

Russell Henley  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Brooks Koepka

Bryson DeChambeau

Webb Simpson

Rory Mcilroy

Patrick Reed

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Jordan Spieth

Bubba Watson

Ryan Moore

Charley Hoffman

Daniel Berger

Paul Casey

 

LONGER SHOTS

Andrew Putnam  +8000

Beau Hossler  +8000

Brendan Steele  +8000

J.B. Holmes  +8000

Luke List  +8000

Patrick Rodgers  +8000

Austin Cook  +10000

Bill Haas  +10000

Chesson Hadley  +10000

Chez Reavie  +10000

Danny Lee  +10000

Graeme McDowell  +10000

Jamie Lovemark  +10000

Keith Mitchell  +10000

Kevin Streelman  +10000

Pat Perez  +10000

Si Woo Kim  +1000

Adam Hadwin  +12500

Martin Laird  +12500

Joel Dahmen  +15000

Kevin Tway  +12500

Satoshi Kodaira  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Paul Casey

Webb Simpson

Louis Oosthuizen

Charley Hoffman

Zach Johnson

 

THE 'FORE' SOMES

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Patrick Reed  (16:1).  For the model we built this week, Patrick Reed just shines. He is coming off of a huge weekend at the U.S. Open where he had a laser round Sunday. For most other names that would be enough for me to fade, but with Reed, it seems his energy and tenacity are limitless. His game also might set up really well for River Highlands. He was great off the tee last week at Shinnecock and he ranks right near the top for SG: Approach over the past 10- and 5-event ranges. Arguably one of the hottest golfers on tour this season, Reed had a legit shot at winning the first TWO majors of the year. After back-to-back missed cuts at the Pebble Pro-Am and Honda Classic, Reed has seven top 10s in his last 10 events, including a win at The Masters, 4th at the U.S. Open, and a 2nd at the Valspar. Most names coming off of that taxing weekend in Long Island I am staying away from, but the Reed Train is showing no signs of slowing down.

Ryan Moore  (33:1)  & Kyle Stanley  (60:1).  Although I was tempted to continue going against the U.S. Open hangover strategy here and take Daniel Berger (who played extremely well last week), I am going with a guy who got the week off: Ryan Moore. Moore is an absolute horse for this course and has been showing very solid form of late. Over the past 5 & 10 rolling events, Ryan is in the top 10 for both SG: Field and SG: Approach. Over his past 10 trips to River Highlands, he has racked up 5 top 10 finishes. And he already has three top 10s this year (which doesn't include strong showings at both the RBC and The Memorial). In this mid-tier, Moore is my number #1 pick. For my second pick, I'm going with a player who missed the cut last week, but is otherwise in excellent current form. Kyle Stanley in his last seven events has two top 5s, two top 10s, and two missed cuts. He damn near won the Memorial and he ranks right near the top in SG: Approach for the past rolling events and is still trending upward (70% GIR, too). A bit of a risk/reward pick, but among all the other names in this range, his called out to me.

Beau Hossler  (100:1).  There are a lot of great names in this range, Hadley for instance has moved from 100 to 80 overnight, clearly a favorite. Danny Lee, Si Woo Kim, Jamie Lovemark, and even Adam Hadwin all look pretty good. But I am going straight gut pick and dart throw with Beau Hossler at 100 to 1. Started off the season strong, has racked up 3 top 10s, got his heart ripped out by a blazing hot Ian Poulter to lose the Houston Open in a playoff, and has a bunch of 30th-50th range finishes of late. Has had a bit of rest with a week off. I like Hossler's chances this week.

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Ryan Moore  30:1

Charley Hoffman  40:1

Russell Knox  50:1

Jamie Lovemark  125:1

 

GAVIN'S 'FORE' SOME 

Daniel Berger  25:1

Russell Henley  50:1

Russell Knox  50:1

Patrick Rodgers  80:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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