2018 Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Betting Odds for the 2018 Valspar Championship

THE OVERVIEW

Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida – The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook has been a staple on the PGA rotation for over 15 years. It is a tree-lined track that will force the players to leave driver in the bag on most tees.

The field this week is a strong one, and it sees a number of players returning from what must have been a grueling week in Mexico. We’ll be looking at strong iron players, Par-3 Scoring, and Scrambling when making our picks this week.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 14   Adam Hadwin   (Runner Up:   -13   Patrick Cantlay)

2016  -7   Charl Schwartzel   (Runner Up, Playoff:   Bill Haas)

2015  -10   Jordan Spieth   (Runners Up, Playoff:   Sean O’Hair, Patrick Reed)

2014  -7   John Senden   (Runner Up:   -6   Kevin Na)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 3/5/2018)

Jordan Spieth +850

Rory McIlroy  +1400

Sergio Garcia  +1600

Justin Rose  +1800

Henrik Stenson  +2000

Paul Casey  +2500

Tiger Woods  +2500

Adam Hadwin  +2800

Tony Finau  +2800

Byeong Hun An  +4000

Webb Simpson  +4000

Adam Scott  +4500

Gary Woodland  +4500

Kevin Na  +4500

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +4500

Ryan Moore  +5000

Branden Grace  +5500

Cameron Smith  +5500

Charl Schwartzel  +5500

Chez Reavie  +5500

Louis Oosthuizen  +5500

Luke List  +5500

 

WHO’S HOT

Adam Hadwin

Tony Finau

Luke List

Chez Reavie

Jordan Spieth

Scott Stallings

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Henrik Stenson

Jordan Spieth

Dominic Bozzelli

Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar

Jason Dufner

 

LONGER SHOTS

Patrick Reed  +5500

Jason Dufner  +6000

Matt Kuchar  +6000

Ross Fisher  +6000

Bill Haas  +6600

Ollie Schniederjans  +6600

Scott Stallings  +6600

Russell Knox  +7000

Zach Johnson  +7000

Martin Laird  +7500

Charles Howell III  +8000

Jamie Lovemark  +8000

Bryson DeChambeau  +9000

Chesson Hadley  +9000

Kyle Stanley  +10000

Sam Burns  +10000

Nick Taylor  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Sergio Garcia

Justin Rose

Webb Simpson

Matt Kuchar

Charl Schwartzel

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Paul Casey  (25:1). Big guns in Florida this week. Casey gets the nod due to his strong recent form. In his last six starts he hasn’t missed a single cut and has only placed outside the top 20 once (a T49 at the Genesis Open). He ranks well in rolling stats for SGT2G and Par-3 Scoring, both which should serve him well this week. Solid ball striker who in 2018 is gaining strokes on the field in every aspect of his game except putting (and there was evidence of Casey turning that around this past week in Mexico).

Webb Simpson (40:1) & Cameron Smith (55:1).  I like Webb Simpson this week where he will mostly be leaving his driver in the bag. His approach and putting number are fabulous and he played really well two weeks ago on that beast of a course at the Honda. He also ranks well for Par-3 Scoring. Nothing more to say about a solid pro that is trending back into form. Cameron Smith has taken a couple weeks off since we last saw him finish T6 at the Genesis Open. In Smith’s last ten starts he’s finished outside the top 20 only once (a T48 at the uber-rowdy Waste Management Open). The young Aussie also lives in Florida (Jacksonville) and has some experience here, too, having finished T49 and T42 the past two years. Not truly confidence-boosting finishes, but it shows that Smith is familiar with this course. And that combined with his outstanding current form where he’s gaining strokes on the field in almost every category, makes me have to take him.

Sam Burns (100:1).  Listen to this week’s podcast to hear John wax eloquently about Sam Burns. I like him because for the last 5 rolling stats his name is first in Strokes Gained Against the Field. Stellar ball striking skills and fire with his irons. At 100 to 1, I’ll take him (although Will Hill has him at 150).

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tony Finau  28:1

Adam Hadwin  35:1

Kevin Streelman  60:1

Sam Burns 150:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Henrik Stenson  20:1

Byeong Hun An  40:1

Brendan Grace  55:1

Charley Hoffman  100:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.