2018 WGC Mexico Championship

THE OVERVIEW

Club de Golf Chapultepec, Naucalpan, Mexico – The Club de Golf Chapultepec is a challenging 7,330-yard, par 71. That yardage might seem kind of long; however, since the course rests at 7500 feet above sea level, the course ends up playing as one of the shorter ones the players will see all year. That said, it remains a test and it will force players to shape shots both left to right and right to left in order to find themselves in ideal positions.

The kikuyu fairways/rough and poa annua greens are a combination that suits the West Coast swing players as well as those from South Africa. The course, overall, has a classical feel to it and the European players especially tend to like it.

The field this week is S-T-A-C-K-E-D, with only the best in the world invited to play. We will be favoring SGT2G, SGAPP, BOB Percentage, and Par-4 Scoring.

NOTE: There is only one year of course history at the Club de Golf Chapultepec.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  – 14   Dustin Johnson   (Runner Up:   -13   Tommy Fleetwood)

(previous years played at Doral)

2016  -12   Adam Scott   (Runner Up:   -11   Bubba Watson)

2015  – 9   Dustin Johnson   (Runner Up:   -8   J.B. Holmes)

2014  – 4   Patrick Reed   (Runners Up:   -3   Jamie Donaldson, Bubba Watson)

THE ODDS    (Bovada 2/26/2018)

Dustin Johnson +600

Justin Thomas +800

Jon Rahm +1200

Jordan Spieth +1200

Tommy Fleetwood +1600

Rickie Fowler +1600

Phil Mickelson +1800

Justin Rose +2000

Alex Noren +2500

Sergio Garcia +2800

Patrick Cantlay +3300

Paul Casey +3300

Tony Finau +3300

Bubba Watson +3500

Thomas Pieters +4000

Tyrrell Hatton +4500

Ross Fisher +5000

Webb Simpson +5000

Daniel Berger +5000

Matt Kuchar +5000

Chez Reavie +5500

Marc Leishman +5500

Xander Schauffele +5500

Gary Woodland +5500

Matthew Fitzpatrick +6000

 

WHO’S HOT

Tommy Fleetwood

Justin Thomas

Alex Noren

Dustin Johnson

Phil Mickelson

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Dustin Johnson

Tommy Fleetwood

Ross Fisher

John Rahm

Thomas Pieters

Justin Thomas

 

LONGER SHOTS

Matthew Fitzpatrick +6000

Brian Harman +6000

Branden Grace +6600

Kevin Chappell +6600

Louis Oosthuizen +6600

Pat Perez +6600

Dylan Frittelli +7000

Rafa Cabrera-Bello +7000

Adam Hadwin +7500

Kevin Kisner +7500

Brendan Steele +8000

Jason Dufner +8000

Patrick Reed +8000

Russell Henley +9000

Charley Hoffman +10000

Haotong Li +10000

Patton Kizzire +10000

Francesco Molinari +12500

Kiradech Aphibarnrat +15000

Kyle Stanley +15000

Shubhankar Sharma +15000

Peter Uihlein +15000

Bernd Wiesberger +17500

Paul Dunne +17500

Jhonattan Vegas +17500

Chris Paisley +20000

Jorge Campillo +20000

Satoshi Kodaira +20000

Yusaku Miyazato +25000

David Lipsky +30000

Gavin Green +35000

Yuta Ikeda +35000

 

FAITHFULS

Tommy Fleetwood

Phil Mickelson

Alex Noren

Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar

 

THE ‘FORE’ SOMES

‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).  

KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Alex Noren  (25:1). There’s something about Noren‘s current form that makes me have to take him here. Yes, Fleetwood looks like an amazing pick here as well, but I’m taking the additional value on a player just as good at the moment. In Noren’s last five starts, he has finished no worse than T21. Ranks very well in SGT2G, SGAPP, and Good Driving. Also has ample experience and excellent showing in correlating courses. One of the best players in the world over the past year and in tip-top form. A poor showing here last year, but not letting that stop me.

Tony Finau (33:1) & Tyrrell Hatton  (45:1).  Going range chalk with Finau at 33:1. Was already prepared to take him before I even started researching. Excellent recent form, SGT2G & Par-4 Scoring, and correlating courses (T2 Genesis, T6 Farmers, T11 HSBC). Currently 32nd in the world, would not be surprising at all for him to get a big win in a sick field this year.   The second pick in this range was tough. I fell on the pitbull Tyrrell Hatton. Missed the cut last week at the Honda, but finished 3rd in Dubai a few weeks earlier. Started off the season red hot with wins at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and the Italian Open. Since then, T11 at the WGC-HSBC, T8 at the DP World Tour Championship, and T15 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Add in a 10th place finish here last year, and done.

Hao Tong Li  (100:1).  Been riding Fritelli a bunch lately and rally wanted to take him here, but he’s just a hair under the range at the moment at 70:1. So, give me Hao Tong *#@#%*#&$#@* Li!   What can I say about the youngest player in the top 50 OWGR (and the only Chinese player ever???)? Been fire of late. Look at the Afrasia Cup where he was canning long, huge putts against some of the best players in the world. Fearless. And his win in Dubai just a few weeks ago was awesome. Didn’t let going head to head with Rory rattle him one bit. My only hesitation was whether or not he had experience playing at altitude. However, memories of his solo 4th at the Nedbank last November (when he was just flawless with his iron play on that Sunday) came flooding back. I am loving Li at this value.

 

**(differing odds come from Will Hill)

 

JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Tommy Fleetwood  16:1

Justin Rose  22:1

Phil Mickelson  25:1

Chris Paisley  200:1

 

GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME 

Sergio Garcia  28:1

Gary Woodland  60:1

Ross Fisher  60:1

Tyrrell Hatton  45:1

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.