TPC of Louisiana, New Orleans, Louisiana – The TPC of Louisiana is a Pete Dye design (with a little input from PGA legend Steve Elkington) that opened in 2004. This week the course will play as a 7,425-yard, par 72 and it features a number of tree-lined holes that wind through the natural wetlands. Players will need to contend with a fair amount of water hazards and large, tricky bunkers, but those who find fairways and greens will be rewarded with plenty of scoring opportunities.
Last year was the first year for the team format and it saw the team of Blixt/Smith take down Brown/Kisner in a playoff. Beyond that, there is a fair amount of individual player course history that may be worth digging into. The recent change in format will add an extra dimension of uncertainty while picking players and player teams this week; however, FGWW will be selecting what they believe to be a strong model and trusting it.
When selecting players this week, we’ll be looking at a little course history, some Proximity 175+, Par-5 Scoring, and Strokes Gained Putting.
2017 -27 Jonas Blixt & Cameron Smith (Runner Up, Playoff: Scott Brown/Kevin Kisner)
2016 -15 Brian Stuard (Runners Up, Playoff: Byeong-hun An, Jamie Lovemark)
2015 -22 Justin Rose (Runner Up: -21 Cameron Tringale)
2014 -19 Seung-yul Noh (Runners Up: -17 Robert Streb, Andrew Svoboda)
2013 -20 Billy Horschel (Runner Up: -19 D.A. Points)
THE ODDS (Bovada 4/23/2018)
Cabrera Bello/Garcia: +2500
C. Hoffman/Watney: +3000
HORSES FOR THE COURSE
Smith / Blixt
Kisner / Brown
Kraft / Tway
Goosen/Van Aswegen: +14000
Kim M./Putnam: +15000
Garrigus/Varner III: +20000
Harold Varner III +20000
THE ‘FORE’ SOMES
‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).
KEITH’S ‘EIGHT’ SOME
Justin Thomas & Bud Cauley (14:1). I just finished writing out my undying love for the Bello/Garcia team until I reached the end of comparisons and realized that the Thomas/Cauley duo simply had them outgunned. I still think Bello/Garcia is worth a bet, but if pushed between the two, this writer is going to favor the younger Americans. Both Thomas and Cauley are gaining strokes against the field in putting and Par-5 Scoring over the past 10 events and Thomas ranks near the very top of the year in 200+ Proximity. That gives them the edge in my humble opinion. In some OAD circles they allow for an event pick that gets a tag-along uncounted, one would be simply missing out to take possibly the best golfer in the world as a rider.
Brendan Steele & Jamie Lovemark (35:1) & Emiliano Grillo & Peter Uihlein (55:1). Teams like O’Hair/Walker, An/Na, and Blixt/Smith (obviously) all rank extremely well this week and would be solid choices. However, I have been on Steele and Lovemark more than a few times already this year. Anyone would be challenged to name a taller, more lanky (and cool!) team in this range. Putting is the one stat where there could be some concern, but both of these guys have shown some great form this season. Both play par-5s better than most and both have been routinely gaining strokes against the field over the past 5 and 10 rolling events. At some point the cool filters towards the top. This team has that in spades. I am going to lay a win on a couple other teams at this range, but Steele / Lovemark have the potential to take this week down.The team of Grillo / Uihlein is very attractive to me for a number of reasons (not least of which are there strong stats for Par-5 Scoring and Uihlein’s 200+ Proximity ranking). But beyond the stats, I like this team for their youthful vitality and worldwide experience. Uihlein in particular is due for a PGA breakout week and this course is set up for him to shine.
Nicolas Lindheim & Richy Werenski (125:1). At some point, one must trust the model. Lindheim dogged me earlier in the year on a week I felt incredibly good about him. Dude is strong with his long irons and can seriously roll the flat stick. Werenski, I’ve never placed a wager on. However, this team pops in the model this week. Trust the data. Trust the process.
**(differing odds come from Will Hill)
JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.