THE OVERVIEW

Real Club Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain – The Euro Tour is stopping by Spain as it heads into its final stretch to the DP World Tour Championship. This week sees a slightly lighter field teeing it up at the Real Club Valderrama for the fourth Andalucia Valderrama Masters. Sergio Garcia has won this tourney two of the previous three times its been held, but the first two were played back in 2010 and 2011 before it started back up again last year.

Real Club Valderrama is a Robert Trent Jones design that has been difficult to score on in the past. The course this week will play as a 6,991-yard, par 71 and features tree-lined fairways, significant elevation changes, and fast bentgrass greens.

For course history we'll be looking at last year's Andalucia Valderrama Masters as well as the 2016 Open de Espana, which was also held here.

And when selecting players this week, we'll be considering current form, course history, and possibly favoring some Spanish pros as they tend to play well here.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -12   Sergio Garcia   (Runner Up:    -11   Joost Luiten)

2011  -6   Sergio Garcia    (Runner Up:    -5   Miguel Angel Jimenez)

2010  -3   Graeme McDowell   (Runners Up:    -1   Soren Kjeldsen, Gareth Maybin, Damien McGrane)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 10/15/2018)

Sergio Garcia  +400

Shane Lowry  +1200

Andrew Johnston  +2000

Lee Westwood  +2000

Padraig Harrington  +2000

Soren Kjeldsen  +2000

Joost Luiten  +3300

Jorge Campillo  +3300

Marcus Kinhult  +3300

Richard Sterne  +3300

Jason Scrivener  +4000

Matthew Southgate  +4000

Mikko Korhonen  +4000

Robert Rock  +4000

Aaron Rai  +5000

Nacho Elvira  +5000

Richie Ramsay  +5000

Wade Ormsby  +5000

Julien Guerrier  +6600

Oliver Fisher  +6600

Pablo Larrazabal  +6600

Ricardo Gouveia  +6600

Stephen Gallacher  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Shane Lowry

Padraig Harrington

Gavin Green

Lee Westwood

Julie Guerrier

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Sergio Garcia

Wade Ormsby

Aaron Rai

Shane Lowry

Richie Ramsay

 

LONGER SHOTS

Ashley Chesters  +8000

Gavin Green  +8000

Jeunghun Wang  +8000

Bradley Dredge  +10000

Darren Fichardt  +10000

Edoardo Molinari  +10000

Haydn Porteous  +10000

Joakim Lagergren  +10000

Lee Slattery  +10000

Marcus Fraser  +10000

Maximilian Kieffer  +10000

Nino Bertasio  +10000

Peter Hanson  +10000

Phachara Khongwatmai  +10000

Richard McEvoy  +10000

Alejandro Canizares  +12500

Callum Shinkwin  +12500

David Drysdale  +12500

Renato Paratore  +12500

Clement Sordet  +15000

Gregory Bourdy  +15000

Gregory Havret  +15000

James Morrison  +15000

Jonathan Thomson  +15000

Justin Walters  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Sergio Garcia

Shane Lowry

Lee Westwood

Padraig Harrington

 

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOME

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Shane Lowry  (12:1).  Pretty slim pickens at this top tier this week. Sergio is at an unplayable number. Beef looks good at 20, especially considering he won the 2016 Open de Espana here, but his current form leaves a little to be desired. Westwood and Harrington are both tempting and may contend, but are probably a bit of a reach for the actual win. And Joost Luiten who finished second here last year is just returning from wrist surgery. So, that leaves Lowry.

Shane Lowry is enjoying some return to form of late.  T12 at the PGA Championship followed by a solo 6th at the Portugal Masters. And he knows Valderrama. He finished T12 here last year and solo 4th way back in 2011. So, I like the big Irishman at 12:1.

Jorge Campillo  (33:1)  &  Robert Rock  (40:1).  I have in my note to be sure to take one strong Spanish pro this week. And there is none stronger at the moment than Jorge Campillo.

Campillo has racked up SIX top five finishes this year. He has cooled off a bit the past few weeks, but earlier this season he and Otaegui were absolutely on fire. Nacho Elvira or Pablo Larrazabal are the other Spanish options in this range, and either would be good picks, but my gut is telling me to get on Campillo.

Robert Rock is kind of a safe play here at 40. He has tons of course history here, finishing T8 last year. And he tends to flash well in lighter fields such as this. Wade Ormsby and Aaron Rai are also both tempting at 50 each. 

Ashley Chesters  (80:1).  Ashley Chesters has been kind of kicking ass this season. He’s tallied upwards of 390,000 Euros this season with a bunch of decent finishes (only two top tens, however). He is familiar with Valderrama having placed T12 here last year with Shane Lowry, Oliver Fisher, Adrian Otaegui, and Pablo Larrazabal. He also finished T16 in nearby Portugal just a few weeks ago. I was also looking at Gavin Green, Nino Bertasio, and Phachara Khongwatmai in this range. But, ultimately, I like Chesters the most.

 

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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