THE OVERVIEW
Jumeriah Golf Estates, Earth Course, Dubai, United Arab Emirates - The Earth Course at Jumeriah Golf Estates is a Greg Norman design that was created specifically for this event. The par-72, 7,675-yard long track can be a beast. It demands accuracy off the tee to avoid the many bunkers strategically placed in the landing areas. Players will be required to hit the ball long and straight and the greens will favor players with higher ball flight. Although the greens will be will not favor anyone when putting as they are well-known for being difficult to read. The finish will also be challenging as the closing 4 holes will punish any errant shots.
Given all of that, it is no surprise that the two names that pop up the most in course history success are Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson. We will be looking most closely at course history and recent form when picking players for this one.
PAST WINNERS
2017 - 19 Jon Rahm (Runners Up: - 18 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Shane Lowry)
2016 - 17 Matthew Fitzpatrick (Runner Up: - 16 Tyrrell Hatton)
2015 - 21 Rory McIlroy (Runner Up: - 20 Andy Sullivan)
2014 - 16 Henrik Stenson (Runners Up: - 14 Victor Dubuisson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose)
2013 - 25 Henrik Stenson (Runner Up: - 19 Ian Poulter)
2012 - 23 Rory McIlroy (Runner Up: - 21 Justin Rose)
BETTING ODDS (Bovada 11/12/2018)
Rory McIlroy +1000
Sergio Garcia +1100
Jon Rahm +1200
Tommy Fleetwood +1400
Xander Schauffele +1400
Francesco Molinari +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +1600
Hao Tong Li +2000
Henrik Stenson +2000
Patrick Reed +2000
Thorbjorn Olesen +2200
Lee Westwood +2800
Rafa Cabrera Bello +2800
Shane Lowry +2800
Alex Noren +3300
Branden Grace +3300
Lucas Bjerregaard +3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Ian Poulter +4500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +4500
Matt Wallace +4500
Ross Fisher +4500
Eddie Pepperell +5000
Martin Kaymer +5000
Thomas Detry +5000
Thomas Pieters +5000
Andy Sullivan +5500
Joost Luiten +5500
Dylan Frittelli +6600
HOT PLAYERS
Sergio Garcia
Lee Westwood
Tommy Fleetwood
Hao Tong Li
Lucas Bjerregaard
Andrea Pavan
HORSES FOR THE COURSE
Rory McIlroy
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Shane Lowry
Patrick Reed
Tyrrell Hatton
LONGER SHOTS
Andrea Pavan +7000
Danny Willett +7000
Russell Knox +7000
Tom Lewis +7000
Lucas Herbert +7500
Alexander Bjork +8000
Ryan Fox +8000
Jordan Smith +9000
Mikko Korhonen +9000
Alexander Levy +10000
Chris Wood +10000
Robert Rock +10000
Adrian Otaegui +12500
Chris Paisley +12500
Dean Burmester +12500
Erik Van Rooyen +12500
Jorge Campillo +12500
Sam Horsfield +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
Darren Fichardt +15000
Mike Lorenzo-Vera +15000
Paul Dunne +15000
FAITHFULS
Sergio Garcia
Tommy Fleetwood
Francesco Molinari
Tyrrell Hatton
Lee Westwood
GOLF PICKS
THE 'FORE' SOME
'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).
KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME
Tyrrell Hatton (16:1). My short list has Tommy Fleetwood, Hao Tong Li, Ty Hatton, and Francesco Molinari. And Ty Hatton wins because he is an absolute beast on this course. T8 last year. 2nd in 2016. T13, 2015. T6 in 2014. The fiery Englishman has had a good year and especially recently has been finishing strong in stacked fields. His current form, solid history, and overabundance of competitiveness make him a sound pick here. I like it. Give me Hatton at 16:1.
Matt Wallace (45:1) & Thomas Detry (50:1). Both Bjerregaard and Pieters were considered for a spot here, but I have to go with Wallace who has had an epic season so far. He has had three tour wins this year and at times has looked vastly superior to other pros around him. Four wins in one season is way too much to ask or expect from any player, but if Wallace were to find a way to do it, it would be a shame not to be on him.
And Thomas Detry is coming off back-to-back outstanding weeks. T3 at the Turkish Airlines Open and solo 7th at last week’s Nedbank. The 25-year-old Belgian has been hit or miss so far throughout his young career, but his game has serious potential. It looks like Detry has recently found something and if he has all of his tools dialed in, he poses a real threat.
Alexander Bjork (80:1). I looked at Ryan Fox and Mikko Korhonen, but I have a voice saying that I need to take Bjork here this week. The 28-year-old Swede won the Volvo Open way back in the first half of the season and has netted two second place finishes this year as well. He was quiet for a bit this summer, but made a lot of noise last month at the British Masters where he narrowly missed getting into a playoff. I think Bjork at 80 is excellent in terms of value and I’m happy to take it.
Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.