THE OVERVIEW

Regnum Carya Golf Resort and Spa, Belek Antalya, Turkey - The Regnum Carya Golf Resort and Spa is a massive facility (hotel, spa, golf course, pools, beach, etc.) and appears  to be one of Turkey's most amazing vacation spots. Built on white sand hills, and over-looking the Mediterranean Sea, the course is a 7,127-yard, par 71, with pine-forest-lined fairways and enough heather and bunkering to appear quite intimidating. In addition, the greens here are large, undulating, and fast, and feature multiple tiers, meaning that most of the green complexes contain "greens within greens."

And while all of that sounds impressive, it’s still a resort course and Thorbjorn Olesen won here with an aggregate of 20 under in 2016 and Rose last year shot 18 under , so expect the scores to be low. Most descriptions of the track say that position in the fairway off of the tee is vital to getting good approaches, but the rough isn’t penalizing at all so bombers can swing away.

For making picks, I’ll be looking at course history and recent form as well as SG: Approach and SG: Putting.

 

PAST WINNERS

2017  -18   Justin Rose   (Runners Up:    -17   Nicolas Colsaerts, Dylan Frittelli)

2016  -20   Thorbjorn Olesen    (Runners Up:    -17   David Horsey, Hao Tong Li)

2015  -22   Victor Dubuisson   (Runner Up:    -21   Jaco Van Zyl)   @Montgomerie Maxx Royal 

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 10/29/2018)

Justin Rose  +450

Tommy Fleetwood  +800

Thorbjorn Olesen  +1400

Shane Lowry  +2000

Hao Tong Li  +2500

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  +2800

Lucas Bjerregaard  +2800

Thomas Pieters  +2800

Andy Sullivan  +3300

Joost Luiten  +3300

Lucas Herbert  +3300

Matt Wallace  +3300

Tom Lewis  +3300

Jordan Smith  +4000

Julian Suri  +4000

Lee Westwood  +4000

Mikko Korhonen  +4000

Andrea Pavan  +4500

Ross Fisher  +4500

Alexander Levy  +5000

Russell Knox  +5000

Alexander Bjork  +5500

Padraig Harrington  +5500

Erik Van Rooyen  +6600

Marcus Kinhult  +6600

Ryan Fox  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Tommy Fleetwood

Thorbjorn Olesen

Lucas Bjerregaard

Andrea Pavan

Hao Tong Li

Gavin Green

Lucas Herbert

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Justin Rose

Thorbjorn Olesen

Nicolas Colsaerts

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

David Horsey

Hao Tong Li

 

LONGER SHOTS

Andrew Johnston  +7500

Jorge Campillo  +7500

Robert Rock  +7500

Soren Kjeldsen  +7500

Danny Willett  +8000

Martin Kaymer  +8000

Brandon Stone  +9000

Matthew Southgate  +9000

Nicolas Colsaerts  +9000

Paul Dunne  +9000

Richard Sterne  +9000

Ashley Chesters  +10000

Ashun Wu  +10000

Chris Paisley  +10000

Gavin Green  +10000

George Coetzee  +10000

Jeunghun Wang  +10000

Julien Guerrier  +10000

Matthias Schwab  +10000

Nacho Elvira  +10000

Oliver Fisher  +10000

Sam Horsfield  +10000

Thomas Detry  +10000

Shubhankar Sharma  +12500

Adrian Otaegui  +15000

Joakim Lagergren  +15000

Renato Paratore  +17500

Tapio Pulkkanen  +20000

 

FAITHFULS

Justin Rose

Tommy Fleetwood

Thorbjorn Olesen

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Padraig Harrington

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOME

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Kiradech Aphibarnrat  (28:1).  The 29-year-old Thai pro has been a long time fave on this website. Currently 37th in the world rankings and slowly rising.

The Barn Rat has got a kind of laissez faire, unflappable, demeanor. All smiles all the time. His form had slid there a bit, but he’s trending back upwards. T33 at the CIMB. A very solid T4 this past week. Here he’ll be in a slightly lighter field, even though Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood are here, and he knows and likes this course. T25 in 2016. T6 in 2017.

Thorbjorn Olesen, Hao Tong Li, Lucas Bjerregaard, and Thomas Pieters are all strong picks, too, but after fading Rose and Fleetwood, I like Kiradech Aphibarnrat best here.

 

Lucas Herbert  (33:1)  &  Julian Suri  (40:1).  It should be no surprise that I am all about Lucas Herbert this week. The 22-year-old Aussie has been lighting up the Euro Tour over the past two months. Listen to these finishes. T18 in Fiji. T44 at the Real Czech Masters. MC in Denmark. T28 at the KLM Open. T2 at the Portugal Masters. T7 at the Alfred Dunhill Links. T3 at the British Masters.

Lucas Herbert has risen from 287 in the world rankings to 82nd in less than a year. Herbert is super long off the tee and the track here at the Carya Resort will be the easiest he’s seen in a while. Although the number should be closer to 40, I expect Herbert to tear it up this week.

I am excited to play Julian Suri this week. He didn’t have his best stuff last week in China, finishing T64, but that course was playing hard for everyone. Even Matthew Fitzpatrick shot two rounds of 80 and 81. Two weeks before that, however, Suri played brilliantly at the British Masters.

And this time last year, in this same stretch of events, he was on fire. During that stretch he won the 2017 Made in Denmark and had three T8 finishes at the 2017 Valderrama Masters, last year’s Turkish Airlines Open here at the Carya Resort, and at the DP World Tour Championship. He followed all of that up with a T2 at the Hong Kong Open as well.

Since then he’s racked up a T8 at the Houston Open, a T2 at the Open de France, and that excellent T5 a few weeks ago at the British Masters. Suri’s game is super solid, currently 72nd OWGR, and he likely sees this stretch as one where he can cash some good checks. I want to be on him as he does.

Players that just missed out here were Matt Wallace and Andrea Pavan.

 

Gavin Green  (100:1).  I always feel good about Gavin Green when I play him and he almost always misses the cut when I do. However, Green has shown some really good form of late. He is also currently sitting at 75th on the Race to Dubai standings. He’ll need to gain 15 spots if he wants to play in the DP World Tour Championship and I’m sure that’s on his mind.

The 24-year-old Malaysian pro, and University of New Mexico grad (GO LOBOS!),  is a bit of a wild card. One round he can shoot 65. The next 78. He was the 2017 Order of Merit winner on the Asian Tour and I’ve been waiting for him to have some success on the European Tour. Since late August he’s had two top tens (3rd at the Czech Masters and T9 at the British Masters) and a T12 at the Omega European Masters. So, I will be hoping that another top ten is in the cards for him this week, but I know that DFL is on the table too.

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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