THE OVERVIEW

Hong Kong Golf Club, Fanling, China - This week the European Tour is kicking off their 2019 season by moving back to China, where The Hong Kong Golf Club in Fanling will be playing as a par-70 and measures only 6,710 yards. Traditionally a ball striker's track, the course features tree-lined fairways with relatively narrow landing areas. So, many of the longer hitters will be forced to leave their drivers in the bag. The greens are Bermuda and the fairways are made up of a Bermuda/Zoysia mix.

In the past, windy conditions have caused some trouble, and the forecast this week calls for wind in the 13-14mph range on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. And with evening showers on Thursday and rain during the day on Sunday. It could get hairy out there. Dave Tindall on Rotoworld says that late-early appears to be the best draw.

In selecting players we like this week, we'll be looking at strong iron players. As far as stats, Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy, Course History, and Current Form are going to weigh heavily.

 

PAST WINNERS

2018  - 11  Wade Ormsby   (Runners Up:  - 10   Rafael Cabrera Bello, Alexander Bjork, Paul Peterson, Julian Suri)

2017  - 13  Sam Brazel   (Runner Up:  - 12   Rafael Cabrera Bello)

2016  - 17  Justin Rose   (Runner Up:  - 16   Lucas Bjerregaard)

2015  - 13  Scott Hend   (Runners Up, Playoff:  - 13  Angelo Que)

2014  - 12  Miguel Angel Jimenez   (Runner Up, Playoff:  - 12  Stuart Manley, Prom Meesawat)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 11/19/2018)

Tommy Fleetwood  +550

Patrick Reed  +600

Sergio Garcia  +650

Rafa Cabrera Bello  +800

Matthew Fitzpatrick  +1200

Lucas Bjerregaard  +1600

Jason Scrivener  +3300

Marcus Fraser  +4000

Shubhankar Sharma  +4000

Marcus Kinhult  +5000

Sam Horsfield  +5000

Wade Ormsby  +5000

Matthew Southgate  +6600

Matthias Schwab  +6600

Nicolas Colsaerts  +6600

Ricardo Gouveia  +6600

Sang Hyun Park  +6600

Sean Crocker  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Sergio Garcia

Lucas Bjerregaard

Tommy Fleetwood

Patrick Reed

Adri Arnaus

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Wade Ormsby

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Tommy Fleetwood

Sam Brazel

Lucas Bjerregaard

 

LONGER SHOTS

Aaron Rai  +8000

Andrew Johnston  +8000

Ashley Chesters  +8000

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano  +8000

John Catlin  +8000

Justin Harding  +8000

Miguel Angel Jimenez  +8000

Nacho Elvira  +8000

Paul Peterson  +8000

Thomas Aiken  +8000

Victor Dubuisson  +8000

Fabrizio Zanotti  +10000

Jazz Jannewattananond  +10000

Masahiro Kawamura  +10000

Victor Perez  +10000

Adri Arnaus  +12500

Alejandro Canizares  +12500

David Lipsky  +12500

Jeunghun Wang  +12500

Joachim B. Hansen  +12500

Gregory Bourdy  +15000

Phachara Khongwatmai  +15000

S.S.P. Chawrasia  +15000

Sam Brazel  +15000

Scott Hend  +15000

Zander Lombard  +15000

Clement Sordet  +20000

Haydn Porteous  +20000

Kim Koivu  +20000

Poom Saksansin  +20000

Micah Lauren Shin  +50000

 

FAITHFULS

Tommy Fleetwood

Sergio Garcia

Rafa Cabrera Bello

Andrew Johnston

Matthew Fitzpatrick

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOME

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Lucas Bjerregaard  (16:1).  Fleetwood, Reed, Garcia, and Rafa are all probably better picks here, but I can’t bring myself to play single digit odds. So, give me Lucas Bjerregaard.

Bjerregaard has a really solid track record at this course and is coming off his best season on tour.  A win and nine top tens in his last 20 events. And even though he has good length off the tee, he isn’t dependent on it to gain an advantage. He finished 3rd in GIR stats for 2018. And at a 5.5% better than the field average. That’s good enough for me.

Marcus Kinhult  (50:1)  &  Sean Crocker  (66:1).  Marcus Kinhult is another Euro star coming off a super strong season. The young Swede finished T22 last week at the DP World Tour Championships, finished T27 here last year and averaged 68% GIR for 2018. In fine form and can get white hot with his approach shots.

Sean Crocker is a personal fave of mine. He’s definitely a long shot, but a super-talented young pro from USC that just graduated from the Challenge Tour and one that I am really pulling for. Sean Crocker racked up four top five finishes in the last five Challenge Tour events of the season. He played extremely well in these early weeks of the Euro season last year, including a T16 here, and I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to think that he won’t start off hot again.

That said, Jason Scrivener at 33:1 is probably the smarter, more conservative play here.

Paul Peterson (80:1).  There are so many names in the high odds range to get excited about this week, but I am going a little conservative and taking range chalk on Paul Peterson who finished T2 here last year. Peterson had his best finishes early last season and then kind of slipped out of form a bit. However, last year in Hong Kong he fired 70, 68, 65, 67. Those are pretty sick rounds for a course of this caliber. I’ve got to think that Peterson is coming into this week feeling like this is a track he can score on. And when he finds his groove, he’s got the game to contend.

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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