THE OVERVIEW
Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida – The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook has been a staple on the PGA rotation for over 15 years. It is a tree-lined track that will force the players to leave driver in the bag on most tees.
The field this week is a strong one, and it sees a number of players returning from what must have been a grueling week in Mexico. We’ll be looking at strong iron players, Par-3 Scoring, and Scrambling when making our picks this week.
PAST WINNERS
2017 – 14 Adam Hadwin (Runner Up: -13 Patrick Cantlay)
2016 -7 Charl Schwartzel (Runner Up, Playoff: Bill Haas)
2015 -10 Jordan Spieth (Runners Up, Playoff: Sean O’Hair, Patrick Reed)
2014 -7 John Senden (Runner Up: -6 Kevin Na)
THE ODDS (Bovada 3/5/2018)
Jordan Spieth +850
Rory McIlroy +1400
Sergio Garcia +1600
Justin Rose +1800
Henrik Stenson +2000
Paul Casey +2500
Tiger Woods +2500
Adam Hadwin +2800
Tony Finau +2800
Byeong Hun An +4000
Webb Simpson +4000
Adam Scott +4500
Gary Woodland +4500
Kevin Na +4500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500
Ryan Moore +5000
Branden Grace +5500
Cameron Smith +5500
Charl Schwartzel +5500
Chez Reavie +5500
Louis Oosthuizen +5500
Luke List +5500
WHO’S HOT
Adam Hadwin
Tony Finau
Luke List
Chez Reavie
Jordan Spieth
Scott Stallings
HORSES FOR THE COURSE
Henrik Stenson
Jordan Spieth
Dominic Bozzelli
Sergio Garcia
Matt Kuchar
Jason Dufner
LONGER SHOTS
Patrick Reed +5500
Jason Dufner +6000
Matt Kuchar +6000
Ross Fisher +6000
Bill Haas +6600
Ollie Schniederjans +6600
Scott Stallings +6600
Russell Knox +7000
Zach Johnson +7000
Martin Laird +7500
Charles Howell III +8000
Jamie Lovemark +8000
Bryson DeChambeau +9000
Chesson Hadley +9000
Kyle Stanley +10000
Sam Burns +10000
Nick Taylor +20000
FAITHFULS
Sergio Garcia
Justin Rose
Webb Simpson
Matt Kuchar
Charl Schwartzel
THE ‘FORE’ SOMES
‘FORE’ SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a “low tier” betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a “mid tier” (30:1 – 75:1), and a final player from a “high tier” (75:1 & up).
KEITH’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Paul Casey (25:1). Big guns in Florida this week. Casey gets the nod due to his strong recent form. In his last six starts he hasn’t missed a single cut and has only placed outside the top 20 once (a T49 at the Genesis Open). He ranks well in rolling stats for SGT2G and Par-3 Scoring, both which should serve him well this week. Solid ball striker who in 2018 is gaining strokes on the field in every aspect of his game except putting (and there was evidence of Casey turning that around this past week in Mexico).
Webb Simpson (40:1) & Cameron Smith (55:1). I like Webb Simpson this week where he will mostly be leaving his driver in the bag. His approach and putting number are fabulous and he played really well two weeks ago on that beast of a course at the Honda. He also ranks well for Par-3 Scoring. Nothing more to say about a solid pro that is trending back into form. Cameron Smith has taken a couple weeks off since we last saw him finish T6 at the Genesis Open. In Smith’s last ten starts he’s finished outside the top 20 only once (a T48 at the uber-rowdy Waste Management Open). The young Aussie also lives in Florida (Jacksonville) and has some experience here, too, having finished T49 and T42 the past two years. Not truly confidence-boosting finishes, but it shows that Smith is familiar with this course. And that combined with his outstanding current form where he’s gaining strokes on the field in almost every category, makes me have to take him.
Sam Burns (100:1). Listen to this week’s podcast to hear John wax eloquently about Sam Burns. I like him because for the last 5 rolling stats his name is first in Strokes Gained Against the Field. Stellar ball striking skills and fire with his irons. At 100 to 1, I’ll take him (although Will Hill has him at 150).
**(differing odds come from Will Hill)
JOHN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Tony Finau 28:1
Adam Hadwin 35:1
Kevin Streelman 60:1
Sam Burns 150:1
GAVIN’S ‘FORE’ SOME
Henrik Stenson 20:1
Byeong Hun An 40:1
Brendan Grace 55:1
Charley Hoffman 100:1
Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.
