THE OVERVIEW

El Camaleon Golf Course, Playa Del Carmen, Mexico - The El Camaleon Golf layout is a Greg Norman design that winds through tropical jungle and mangroves and along oceanfront sand. The course this week will play as a 6,987-yard par 71 and consists of paspulum grass that some players tend to play really well on (I'm looking at you Pat Perez).

It's a ball striker's track with a lot of trouble in play. A series of canals runs through the Mayakoba track and are potential hazards off of the tee on most holes. Given the course's average length, many of the past champions here have not been big hitters. So, we'll be looking to favor accuracy over distance.

When selecting players this week, I'll be favoring ball striking stats from the past five events pretty heavily. That may not be the most recommended course of action, but it is one way to play an event like this and I have committed to it here.

 

PAST WINNERS

2018  - 19  Patton Kizzire   (Runner Up:   -18   Rickie Fowler)

2017  - 21  Pat Perez   (Runners Up:  - 19  Gary Woodland)

2016  - 18  Graeme McDowell   (Runners Up:  Playoff  Jason Bohn, Russell Knox)

2015  - 17  Charley Hoffman   (Runner Up:  - 16  Shawn Stefani)

2014  - 21  Harris English   (Runner Up:  - 17  Brian Stuard)

 

BETTING ODDS   (Bovada 11/05/2018)

Rickie Fowler  +800

Jordan Spieth  +1200

Tony Finau  +1400

Gary Woodland  +2000

Aaron Wise  +2500

Billy Horschel  +2800

Emiliano Grillo  +2800

Cameron Champ  +2800

Beau Hossler  +3300

Luke List  +3300

Si Woo Kim  +3300

Ryan Moore  +3300

Joaquin Niemann  +4000

Sam Ryder  +4000

Scott Piercy  +4000

Zach Johnson  +4000

Abraham Ancer  +4500

Adam Hadwin  +4500

Bill Haas  +4500

C.T. Pan  +4500

Charles Howell III  +4500

Pat Perez  +4500

Chez Reavie  +5000

J.B. Holmes  +5000

Matt Kuchar  +5000

Patrick Rodgers  +5000

Denny McCarthy  +5500

Kevin Chappell  +5500

Kevin Kisner  +5500

Sung Jae Im  +5500

Cameron Davis  +6600

Charley Hoffman  +6600

J.J. Spaun  +6600

 

HOT PLAYERS

Rickie Fowler

Tony Finau

Gary Woodland

Joaquin Niemann

Abraham Ancer

 

HORSES FOR THE COURSE

Patton Kizzire

Rickie Fowler

Pat Perez

Gary Woodland

Charles Howell III

Chez Reavie

 

LONGER SHOTS

Jamie Lovemark  +7000

Patton Kizzire  +7000

Chris Kirk  +7500

Martin Laird  +7500

Anders Albertson  +8000

Bronson Burgoon  +8000

Harold Varner  +8000

Keith Mitchell  +8000

Russell Henley  +8000

Sam Burns  +8000

Brian Harman  +9000

Danny Lee  +9000

Graeme McDowell  +9000

Adria Arnaus  +10000

Hudson Swafford  +10000

Kevin Streelman  +10000

Brandon Harkins  +12500

Brian Gay  +12500

Bud Cauley  +12500

Jhonattan Vegas  +12500

Joel Dahmen  +12500

Kramer Hickok  +12500

Robert Streb  +12500

Rory Sabbatini  +12500

Anirban Lahiri  +15000

 

FAITHFULS

Rickie Fowler

Tony Finau

Ryan Moore

Zach Johnson

Chez Reavie

 

GOLF PICKS

THE 'FORE' SOME

'FORE' SOMES are chosen by selecting one player from a "low tier" betting pool (30:1 or better), two players from a "mid tier" (30:1 - 75:1), and a final player from a "high tier" (75:1 & up).  

KEITH'S 'FORE' SOME 

Gary Woodland (20:1).  After fading Rickie at that ugly 8:1, Gary is the clear favorite in my eyes. Great form. Good history.  Couldn't be a nicer guy. Everybody loves Gary Woodland.

Abraham Ancer  (45:1)  &  Sung Jae Im  (55:1).  There are some super strong names here. Si Woo Kim, Joaquin Niemann, Chez Reavie (excellent course history), Patrick Rodgers (65 here last year), JJ Spaun (in form and underrated).

But I really like Abraham Ancer this week. In great form after that T4 last week in Las Vegas. He likes this course having finished T9 here last year. And if you are worried about gringos getting queasy during a week in Mexico, then take a Mexican. Problem solved. Problema resuelto.

And, I am going to get stubborn on Sung Jae Im here. This kid is too good not to take. On a ball striker’s course, let the ball striker ride.

Danny Lee  (90:1).  Full disclosure. A long-time personal fave of mine. I had it down to Bronson Burgoon, Harold Varner, and Danny Lee. Any would be fine picks. However, I settled on Danny Lee after looking at Ball Striking numbers.

 

Listen to this week’s podcast to hear the team’s thoughts on the event and tweet us @fantasygolfww or #fgww.

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